Opinion  Guy Bechor
An ethnic war in Iran is only a matter of time
Guy Bechor
Published: 29.05.15, 22:13
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21 Talkbacks for this article
1. We can only wish it were so.That would be great news!
(05.30.15)
2. What about Israel?
Avi ,   NYC, USA   (05.29.15)
Actually, the only country with nuclear weapons in the Middle East is Israel and it is plagued by ethnic and strife: Jews vs. Muslims and Christians, Religious Jews against secular Jews. European Jews against Jewish Arabs. There is really no guarantee that this tower of cards will stand forever. And then, when the collapse comes, what will happen with the nuclear bombs?
3. Where does the 24% come from?
Sidney ,   California   (05.30.15)
4. If Iraq had it's nukes
Too funny ,   NYC   (05.29.15)
We would've never gone to war with Iraq, there would've been no ISIS. This should be simple enough even for a zionist to grasp.
5. the shia terror regime is not rational
CJK   (05.29.15)
obama's claim that the shia terror regime is rational is sheer nonsense. if they were rational, they would concentrate on improving the lives of the population, both economically and politically. instead, the shia terror regime engages in terror wars, proxy wars, and extending its hegemone in the region. assad, the regime's closest vassal, has barely troops to defend his own people. the islamic state is winning the war against the shia. nuclear weapons will not protect the regime from internal foes.
6. Iran
Jake ,   Dallas   (05.30.15)
As much as I would like it to be true, Iran is not like Iraq at all. First, most Iranians are Shia, even if they are not Persian. Shiism is the doctrine holding Iran together, not Persian nationalism. Secondly, the non-Persian groups are more often than not, close peoples to the Persians anyway, speaking related languages. Finally, there is no history of separate nations forming on the Iranian plateau. Iran/Persia has held this territory for a very long time. That is not to say that the current regime will not be replaced, or that there will be civil unrest. But the Iraqi situation seems very unlikely to be repeated in Iran.
7. Persian immortals
shapourll ,   london uk   (05.30.15)
Ur article is wrong. Persians means a combination of different ethnics and in regard with Iran more than 85 prevent are shias its different by Syria and Iraq which their Sunni or Shia population are some how not very far from each other. The other thing is most these countries which u mention like Afghanistan, Pakistan and azarbayjun are been part of Iran for centuries.actually there is new movement which is forming now to take back our lost territories. Our Persian territory should stretch to the china and India in east and it should go to the miditranian sea on the west and we should stretch to the Russia from north.
8. Baseless writing
H ,   UK   (05.30.15)
The writer's knowledge of the Iranian demography is next to none. Persia has always been a collective name referring to the land where these various ethnic groups Have lived. Additionally, if the writer was better informed, he would know that, for example, the Azeri/Turkish people In Iran in fact even speak a different dialect of the Turkish language to that which is spoken in Turkey or Azerbaijan. Your analysis is very poor and rather childish. A parallel to it would be to say that UK would be broken up to Wales, England, Scotland, etc, just because the people that make up the population have different cultures and speak different languages! In any country you may have minirities that call for independence from the main state, that is a norm; however, it is what the majority want and feel that matters, and no democracy/theocracy/dictatorship or whatever you want to call it can account and act upon the desires of every single individual in the state! The simple proof for this fact is looking at the list of the casualties in the eight year long Iran-Iraq war, where many of the volunteers killed in the line of duty were from the various ethnic and religious minorities. Any country with a large geographic expanse would of course contain people of various backgrounds! Well done for spotting the obvious!
9. Very good and true article
naro ,   NYC   (05.30.15)
Very good article. Persians are suppressing large Sunni minorities who are ready to explode. The Azeri National Resistance Movement wants independence from Iran, and the Arabs of Arabistan ( hawaz) are also seeking their freedom. The Kurds want their freedom as well. In the ongoing fight between Sunnis and Shiia, the Persians have many enemies within. The Persians have superiority complex. They think that they are the smartest people in the world, and they treat their "minorities" like cockroaches (as they call them.) Iran is ruled by a nazi like iron regime hated by half the Persians and virtually all other minorities, it is only a matter of times before the resentment will explode.
10. So the lesser of two evils is:
Scharp ,   Tel Aviv, Israel   (05.30.15)
That USA and others will protect the current regime in Iran, since letting it crash will be bad for our economy?
11. #2, Achmed. You don't have a clue, do you?
Steve Benassi ,   Silver Bay, MN USA   (05.30.15)
Your knowledge of Israel is at best abysmal ant at worst non existent.
12. More reason to destroy Iran's nukes NOW!
Chaim ,   Israel   (05.30.15)
Bechor is right on target again. Ethnic turmoil in Iran adds yet another compelling reason why Israel must destroy Iran's nukes NOW!
13. Iran can imitate the West German model
i-iran   (05.30.15)
1. Lawful prosecution of mullahs. 2. Reorganizing the cvul administration. 3. Joining EU and NATO All without breaking up.
14. #7 OK... so what are you doing in London Mr Grandiose ?
Rafi ,   US   (05.31.15)
15. Minorities are not content
Mhamahed Qasim ,   Irbil , Kurdistan   (05.31.15)
I am a Kurd , we are Sunnis and area not allowed to teach our kids in our native language. Although the constitution supposedly gives the right . Every election cycle we hear promises and nothing s done frankly because the Persians are very worried . The other thing to know is that there is tension between the shite orientation and the national narrative ( Persians ). Which makes the regime more defensive on any openings .
16. just love these...
mark ,   usa   (05.31.15)
Talkbackers suggesting that israel is trying to instigate ethnic/religious division between various groups in iran. as if sunni jidhadists groups would not be trying the same. as if the source for iranian worries are not closer to home. And who says iranian nuclear sites would be up for grabes, the real worry is what if mullahs collapse the regime only to hide deployment of nuclear tipped cement trucks.
17. the whole article is based on factual error
Gregory ,   Rehovot, Israel   (05.31.15)
CIA World Factbook: the ethnic breakdown of Iran is as follows: Persian 61%, Azeri 16%, Kurd 10%, Lur 6%, Baloch 2%, Arab 2%, Turkmen and Turkic tribes 2%, other 1%
18. One of the most ridiculous article ever read...
Cyrus the great ,   Persia   (05.31.15)
The author should avoid skipping his classes! He needs to attend professor David Menashri's classes more seriously!
19. #8 Ethnic minority casualties
Benji ,   US   (05.31.15)
These were not volunteers. No more than the 1 million child soldiers forced to fight the eight year war. These people were and remain disposable. And the ethnic and religious minorities in Iran understand this.
20. Poorly researched article
Shachar ,   Eilat   (06.01.15)
It is perfectly legitimate to ask the question "what happens if Iran disintegrates?" But trying to will it to break up to suit your purposes is ridiculous. Much of the information he brings is simply wrong, including the ethnic make-up and the comparisons to Iraq and Syria. Iraq and Syria were the whim of a group of British and French officers and should never have been created. Iran has deep historical roots and is highly unlikely to disintergrate.
21. An ethnic war in Iran is only a matter of time - by Guy Bech
Soli Shahvar ,   Haifa, Israel   (06.07.15)
I'm afraid that Mr Guy Bechor doesn't know what he talks about. He is not an Iran expert and this is not the first time that he provides totally unfounded info re Iran. I remember him even saying nonesenses such as that the Baha'is have a representation in the Iranian parliament. As to the present article, Persians are nearly 50% of the population, not 24%. The latter percentage is more relevant to that of the Azeris of Iran. Also, the ethnic minorities in Iran doesn't have the same aspirations as their brethren on the other side of the border. In Iran, the ethnic minorities have only aspired to preserve their culture and wish that the stipulations made in the 1906 constitution - which gave the provinces almost autonomous rule to run their affairs - should be realized. And finally to Mr Bechor, and all the recently mushrooming "Iran experts", you are all probably have some expertise in other matters than Iran. Please try to stick to those and especially refrain from confusing the people with unfounded info. Thanks.
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