Netanyahu's immunity conundrum

Analysis: The prime minister must decide if he can spin trying to escape a trial after declaring his belief that the courts will find him innocent, and how much impact it will have on the election set to take place in March

Moran Azulay |
With a midnight deadline to submit a request for parliamentary immunity, Benjamin Netanyahu spent much of Wednesday intensively debating whether to make the request and if so, how to minimize subsequent fallout for Likud in the upcoming election.
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  • Over the past two days, Netanyahu has conducted various assessments to understand the potential damage to the party from such a request, and to decide which course to take to mitigate it.
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    בנימין נתניהו הצהרה תגובה על החלטת דונלד טראמפ להעביר את דגרירות ארה"ב ל ירושלים ועל הכרה כ בירה
    בנימין נתניהו הצהרה תגובה על החלטת דונלד טראמפ להעביר את דגרירות ארה"ב ל ירושלים ועל הכרה כ בירה
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
    (Photo: GPO)
    If Netanyahu does decide to officially submit the request, he is also expected to issue a statement explaining how he came to this decision.
    The current election campaign presents Netanyahu and his party with a major challenge.
    Likud realizes that if Netanyahu does ask for immunity from prosecution - on the very last day he has can - it is likely to provide ample ammunition for his political rivals.
    From then on, the Likud understands, Netanyahu will not only be charged with offenses of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, but will also be a prime minister who wants to use his immunity to dodge criminal proceedings against him.
    Now Netanyahu's camp and the Likud team around him are trying to work out how to direct public opinion on the issue.
    If he does seek immunity, Netanyahu - who has previously said he trusts in the courts and "there will be nothing" – will have to explain why he is not rushing to those same courts to prove that there is indeed nothing to the allegations.
    Both Netanyahu and his inner circle understand that the issue is very complex and is further complicated by the fact that it is unfolding during a fateful and difficult election campaign.
    Over the past week, Netanyahu several times considered submitting the application but each time he backed out.
    According to internal Likud polls, in the first round of elections in November 2018, during which the suspicions against him were made public, Netanyahu was still able to claw back two Knesset seats that initially went to other parties.
    But Netanyahu regards a request for immunity as having the potential for far greater impact on the vote. And it is for this reason, he is dithering. Because above all, the election campaign must be protected.
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