Attila Somfalvi
Photo: Gabi Menashe
What will happen after pullout?
Photo: Atilla Somfalvi
Big bang? Not now
No dramatic political shifts expected at this time
Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation from the government left plenty of dust in its wake, the kind of dust that covered reality and allowed observers to let loose with scenarios, speculations, and polls that talk about the expected revolution in Israeli politics following the pullout.
Indeed, all options are open, as they say. All of them.
Attila Somfalvi is Ynet’s political correspondentNetanyahu’s resignation obscured even further the answer to the question: What will the day after disengagement look like? If it was difficult to predict the future up until now, with Netanyahu’s dust the job has become ever more difficult: Nothing is clear, nothing really is predictable, and nothing is known.
Big Bang
By Sima Kadmon
Recent polls reveal existence of two distinct groups: the Israeli general public and Likud members; if Sharon were to lead his own coalition he would leave anti-pullout Likud faction far behind in elections
However, the endless number of both possible and impossible political scenarios were joined this week by two old-new ideas, which were with us before and will remain with us later.
The first option is Prime Minister Ariel Sharon leaving the Likud and creating a new political party. The other option, known as the “Big Bang,” was forged by Labor party politician Haim Ramon and would see Sharon, Vice Premier Shimon Peres, and Shinui Chairman Yosef Lapid joining forces.
Those two scenarios, as familiar as they were before, became even more familiar this week, with the media feverishly searching for dramatic headlines.
Poll gives Sharon-Peres-Lapid trio 38 Knesset seats
What’s absurd is that both of these scenarios became, a day after each other, the most realistic, genuine, “it’s going to happen tomorrow morning” options. Or in other words. On Wednesday morning, a Likud split was the most fashionable plan for the moment, while a day later the Sharon-Peres-Lapid trio became the next big thing.
To clear any doubts, those disseminating the possibility of a Likud split were Prime Minister Sharon’s advisors, the ones the media refers to as his “close associates." The advisors spoke, immediately after Netanyahu’s resignation and even before the polls showing Bibi’s lead over Sharon, about the political move that would save Sharon from long arms of Likud Central Committee members, most of whom say they oppose the pullout.
However, said the advisors, let’s wait with this scenario. It’s still early, the prime minister hasn’t seen it, and the matter has not yet been discussed
But then came the poll in Haaretz newspaper Wednesday morning, and boosted the need for a genuine threat against Likud members from Sharon’s camp.
Yet at that time, the “close associates” were quick to dismiss the scenario. “It never happened,” they said, “The prime minister hasn’t discussed it, is not dealing with it, and in the past rejected this possibility out of hand. There is no talk of a split.”
However, it is too early to dismiss this scenario, especially because it makes political sense.
A day later, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper published a poll showing that a party headed by Sharon, Peres, and Lapid would win big in the next elections. This party received 38 Knesset seats in the survey, but it’s not clear on what basis.
Yet following the poll, yesterday’s split option was immediately abandoned, with the “Big Bang” turning into today’s shining star. Still, most politicians estimate that a big bang would not be happening. Not this time around.
Where is Peres?
Longtime Labor party Knesset Member Avraham Shochat, who is on his way out of politics, dismissed the big bang theory with an anecdote.
“The big bang is like the story about playwright Bernard Shaw who met a beautiful and dumb woman,” he said. “She told him: let’s get married, we’ll have a child that is beautiful like me and smart like you. Shaw responded: And what if he’ll be beautiful like me and smart like you?”
That is, what big bang are we talking about? What would this new party look like? What would be its policy? How would the Labor party go with Sharon, with everyone thinking he’s corrupt? And how would Amir Peretz join forces with Yosef Lapid?
Shochat sees the talk about bangs and doesn’t understand where his party leader, Shimon Peres, is hiding.
“No one has put up the Labor party for sale,” he says. “Even though Peres was close to supporting Bibi’s budget, and he wants to wait years to see what Sharon will do following the disengagement, under no circumstances would the Labor party disappear into one faction with Tommy Lapid and Arik Sharon.”
“Lapid’s economic policy is more radical than Bibi’s, and Sharon is one big unknown, with no one knowing who will be joining him and what he wants to sell the public next. There’s a chance of a Likud split, but this has nothing to do with the Labor party. We need to force Sharon to implement our policies later on as well,” Shochat said.
“Peres, as the chairman, must get up and say that we do not support the destruction of the party because of the personal interests of those who are facing political difficulties. This will not be happening.”
