Channels
Photo: AFP
'Ahmadinejad (top) is afraid of being toppled'
Photo: AFP

From enemy to friend

US needs wise policy to avoid clash with Iran

Is a US – Iran war (we can assume Israel would be attacked) inevitable? And what would happen afterwards?

 

Iran is a country full of warring minorities, and there is a real danger that Islamic terror would form a huge expanse ranging from Afghanistan to Iraq. How would the moderate countries in the region, including Israel, react to such a large, threatening al-Qaeda kingdom?

 

The United States may have expressed its readiness to enter into direct talks with Iran, but this proposal appears to be an attempt to outflank Tehran ahead of imposing sanctions. Israelis are virtually united in the opinion that the international coalition must attack, but I think there is a preferable diplomatic option.

 

Call for negotiations

 

The United States will offer Iran direct negotiations with no preliminary terms, during which Washington will present Iran with its next program: Iran will continue to develop its nuclear program, but only for peaceful purposes, and the program will be completely transparent and be conducted under US supervision, and in conjunction with it. After all, it is every nation's right to develop nuclear power for civilian use,

 

At the same time, the United States will renounce its plans for regime change in Iran, which in any event is very strong. In addition, the United States will declare an end to sanctions placed on Iran at the time of the Islamic revolution.

 

Iran is likely to agree to such a proposal, but here come Iran's responsibilities: They must abandon the axis of evil and support for Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and it must not get involved with the Israel-Palestinian conflict, in accordance with former President Mohammed Khatami's policy. At that time, Iran said it would accept any Israel-Palestinian peace deal.

 

Convincing Iran to stop supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad would greatly reduce the scope of terrorism in our region, would stabilize Israel's borders and would facilitate arrangements between Israelis and Palestinians.

 

Diplomatic relations

 

If this is the way things develop, the process will end with full diplomatic relations between Washington and Tehran, including an exchange of ambassadors.

 

Both countries have a great interest in reaching such an agreement. In Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is afraid of being toppled; this is the root of the antagonism he routinely spouts towards the West. There is a liberal minority in that needs outside help, but the more the West demonizes Ahmadinejad, the more they are forced to toe his hard line.

 

A mellowing out of relations could bring about a change in the face of Iranian politics, and perhaps even lead to a replacement for Ahmadinejad at the next elections, without the shock a war against the current government could cause.

 

Joint interests

 

Thus, slowly, this minority could become a majority. Furthermore, Iran and the US alike have joint interest in stabilizing the situations in Afghanistan and Iraq, two countries that border Iran and are radiating instability.

 

Iran is not operating from a position of strength, but rather from a position of weakness and panic. Wise American policy could still turn today's enemy into tomorrow's ally, and strange as it may seem, Iran could well be a candidate to form the first pro-Western democracy in the Middle East, after Israel.

 


פרסום ראשון: 06.04.06, 22:23
 new comment
Warning:
This will delete your current comment