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Halutz was a mistake

Sharon's associates discuss army chief's appointment; will Peretz have to go?

The time: Spring 2005, several months before the Gaza Strip withdrawal

The drama: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz decided not to extend IDF Chief of Staff Moshe (Bugi) Yaalon's term.

The surprise: Yaalon is replaced by Air Force officer Dan Halutz. The headlines scream of Yaalon's humiliation and the surprise. For the first time, a "blue uniform" assumes the army chief's post.

The warnings: Some commentators warn at that time – this may end badly. Yet Mofaz and Sharon stick to their guns and push Halutz forward.

 

A year and a half later – including disengagement and one problematic war – Sharon's associates admit in a talk with Ynet: "Arik made a mistake in appointing Dan Halutz as the chief of staff." So why did Sharon appoint Halutz? "At the time," one Sharon associate says, "Halutz was one of the more intelligent people around. There was somebody to talk to and finalize things with. Arik thought Halutz would be able to handle all the technological issues and prepare the army for a clash with Iran, while Arik himself would oversee developments in the field, in the ground forces.

 

Arik thought he would continue to manage the army, as he did during the Intifada, when he spoke with brigade commanders on the ground every day. But then we had what happened with Arik, and what happened in Lebanon, and today it's already clear that Halutz's appointment was a mistake."

 

Now it turns out that another plan devised by Arik Sharon and his people may fail. They planned to cultivate Halutz's deputy, Major General Moshe Kaplinsky, and to appoint him as army chief following Halutz' term in office. Kaplinsky was always considered to be one Sharon's most favored army officers. Sharon associates spoke about Kaplinsky with great affection. "I don't know what will happen with Halutz," one associate said about a year ago, "but I know that he will be followed by Kaplinsky." This is how much they wanted him.

 

Yet it appears that his involvement in managing the second Lebanon war is now acting against him. Close associates of current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert estimated in a talk with Ynet that Major General Kaplinsky "will not be appointed to the post now. Kaplinsky is done, and it is highly doubtful whether he'll be the army chief after Halutz." The sources estimated that one of the leading candidates for the post of next army chief is Major General (Res.) Gabi Ashkenazi, currently the Defense Ministry's director general.

 

"Ashkenazi is one of the prominent figures that is not at all tainted by the Lebanon war's failures. He's also coming from the field and is familiar with the ground corps. He's not Dan Halutz."

 

Peretz to follow Rumsfeld?

Ehud Olmert met with US President George W. Bush while both of them are facing political trouble, and both of them may end up using the same solution – getting rid of their defense secretary/minister. Olmert's close associates estimate that in the coming months Olmert will have to again undertake several dramatic moves in the coalition in order to boost his public standing, with his freefall in the polls continuing. Today, Olmert is perceived as one of the least popular figures in the country, and the time that has passed since the war did not improve the situation. He's still stuck at the bottom.

 

Therefore, some of his advisors recently recommended: Fire your defense minister. Publicly admit that you made a mistake in appointing Peretz to the post, and explain that national responsibility requires you to replace Peretz by another person who is much more suitable for this ministry. Don't be scared to admit the mistake, the advisors told Olmert. The public is willing to accept acknowledgement of an error, and public opinion will change.

 

For now, the close associates say, Olmert is still unconvinced he must make the move, or he may be scared of it, although he "understands that he will have to make this move in the not so distant future."

 

"Let's hope it won't be too late. If within a few months he won't go up in the polls and the numbers will remain the way they are today, he will reach the point of no-return, and he won't be the prime minister. Amir Peretz is dragging the prime minister down in the polls. As long as Peretz is the defense minister, Ehud Olmert minimizes his own chances to be a prime minister in the future as well."

 

If Bush was able to get rid of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld following the Republican defeat in Congress, why can't Olmert? "Bush understood the rules of the game," Olmert's close associates say. "The prime minister also grasps the rules of the game, but he's still waiting for the cards to work themselves out." Some sources around the PM estimate that if Olmert decides to fire Amir Peretz, he won't face overly strong resistance on the part of Labor party figures.

 

"Nobody will leave the government with Peretz. Even Shelly Yacimovich won't go with him to establish a new faction. He's alone, and the prime minister has the power and ability to do it. We just have to hope he won't be scared and proceed with this move. For his own sake."

 

Something to take note of

A few days ago, Ynet revealed the details of a secret meeting between Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz and Histadrut Labor Federation Chairman Ofer Eini. The two were facing a rift for long months but recently Peretz started sensing the noose tightening around his neck, with the battle for the Labor party's leadership approaching. Therefore, he secretly met with Eini.

 

Labor officials estimate that the agreement finalized between the two is simple: Eini will allow district leaders and Histadrut figures to act on behalf of Peretz within the Labor party, while Labor would not place a candidate against Eini in the elections for the Histadrut leadership. This agreement, according to senior Labor figures, also pushed Peretz to announce he supports the holding of elections for the Labor leadership as soon as possible.

 

"He's counting on Histadrut people," one source in Labor said, "but it isn't certain this will hold water." 

 


פרסום ראשון: 11.14.06, 18:19
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