Putsch against history

Hassan Nasrallah is currently devising one of the most remarkable moves made in the Middle East in the past decades. He is devising a putsch against history. He is not only seeking to topple the Siniora government - that's just small fry – instead, he is out to turn Lebanon into a Shiite, bona fide Islamic state.

By so doing he shall be lifting the status of his ethnic group from the bottom of society to the elite. A precedent already exists: A small Sunni elite that ruled in Iraq was recently toppled by the Americans, turning Iraq into a predominantly Shiite state.

This is an adventurous struggle because if it fails, the ethnic groups in Lebanon, particularly his Shiite group, will suffer a terrible death toll. Yet it appears that Nasrallah is prepared for the challenge; he is set to board the carousel that would either lift him to great heights – the ultimate objective being the post of the Lebanese president – or bring him tumbling down.

Many have dreamed of taking over Lebanon, but it is this tiny and tormented country that has taught everyone that it is stronger than those who erroneously delude themselves. The wars that continuously break out there have shown everyone the limits of their own power - Nasrallah is yet to be taught this lesson.

Provocations

In order to realize his vision, Nasrallah continuously provoked the IDF stationed in Lebanon and in Israel. Even following the IDF's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, he kept up the provocations, because the struggle against Israel has always been viewed as legitimate by the Arab world.

However, his last provocation prompted Israel to react harshly and he was badly hurt. True, he is claiming a "divine victory" but another victory of this type and his leadership will collapse amidst the climate of the frightened Lebanese people who are losing their patience.

But it is worse for the Shiites. Their religious protest has sparked the ire of the great Sunni religious institutions in Cairo and Saudi Arabia. In a series of religious edicts that shocked the Arab world, important Sunni clerics spoke out against the Hizbullah struggle, even though others supported it.

At the beginning of September of this year, the cat was let out of the bag when Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a renowned Egyptian cleric in the Sunni world, warned against the "infiltration of the Shiite discipline into Egypt."

Qaradawi stated that Nasrallah is a "blind fanatic" but that he is better than the defeatists who shirk the campaign. He also explicitly warned against a massacre "such as in Iraq" between the Sunnis and the Shiites, if such an infiltration is made into Egypt." In a direct strike at Nasrallah he added: Nasrallah is no different to the radical Shiites, and we can't ignore this.

Aware of the dangers, but backed by Iran's elusive support and Syria's hesitant blessings, Nasrallah is embarking on a voyage to reverse history. Namely, to bring those who are up down, and vise versa. Within this insane voyage of his, he is likely to get Israel or the entire Middle East involved once again.