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Labor's three-way race

Labor leadership up for grabs as Peretz, Barak and Ayalon prepare for fight

Recently published polls have been very flattering to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak: From the nadir he found himself in, from being the most hated person, Barak started to move up, mostly on Amir Peretz's back. He is not leading yet in the Labor party leadership race, and a team made up of Ami Ayalon and Ophir Pines may leave him far behind – but the attitude to him is softer.

 

Much less hatred, much more understanding, and possibly the willingness to give him another chance.

 

In fact, all Labor party candidates are moving up at the expense of the vilified defense minister. The high rate of support enjoyed by Ami Ayalon, Ophir Paz-Pines, and Barak, stems mostly from Peretz's leadership weakness. When there's no leader, voters look for whoever else is there. Had Peretz avoided the innumerable errors he made after assuming the defense minister's post, it is doubtful whether his political and public status would be that awful.

 

Yet Peretz preferred to learn the hard way and make all the possible mistakes. It is no wonder his image is at a nadir. The defense minister, who is supposed to be one of the strongest and most popular people in Israel, is in the situation Levi Eshkol faced on the eve of the Six Days War when he was both prime minister and defense minister: Slandered, hated, and a target for criticism from all directions. His suitability for the post was questioned, as were his skills and courage.

 

Only recently, Peretz added to his team Dadi Swissa, formerly Ehud Barak's "field man," in order to manage his staff. Meanwhile, two strong women left Peretz's office: Racheli Koren, the legendary bureau chief, and his assistant Daniel.

 

Swissa thought there was need to invigorate the office and upgrade the system. In the framework of the changes, he made Peretz wear suits, forced him to also put on ties, and attempted to give the team around the defense minister the sense of a leading crew.

 

For now, the situation is not the best. Peretz' image is still problematic and he is perceived to be one of the weakest figures in the political establishment. His opponents, on the other hand, are fully exploiting this weakness. Ophir Paz-Pines, who recently announced the launching of his campaign, knows that he is taking part in a race he doesn't really want to be a part of. Paz-Pines would have preferred to wait a few more years and accumulate more experience.

 

However, his resignation from the government after Avigdor Lieberman joined didn't leave him much of a choice. Until he apparently joins forces with one of the other candidates, he is scoring some points, and enjoying some rather flattering polls that show small gaps between him and Ayalon and Barak. It is estimated that once Barak joins the fight in earnest, Paz-Pines will start losing points, and people will start shifting to candidates with a militaristic image.

 

Three-way race expected

The fight, literally, is expected to be between Peretz, Ayalon and Barak. Ehud Barak will try to play the "experience card," travel plenty, and attempt to shake "20,000 hands." At least. Not once. Twice. At least.

 

Ayalon, for his part, will present himself as the national rehabilitator. First he did this at the Navy's elite Flotilla 13 unit, later he did it in the Navy and the Shin Bet – and now he's looking to do it in the Labor party and for the country.

 

Peretz, we must admit, doesn't have much to offer. His position is so unstable that almost nobody believes he can deliver the goods. Any goods. He promised to boost socioeconomic causes? But he went to the Defense Ministry. He promised that a civilian will head the defense establishment? For the time being, the army is working behind his back, without keeping him up to date at all or attaching any importance to him.

 

One of the more interesting battles is expected to take place in the Kibbutzim, within the United Kibbutz Movement. This district was in the past considered as one of Barak's strongest sectors. But Ayalon didn't waste any time, and in the past year traveled to Kibbutzim time after time, and met with almost every activist.

 

Barak's associates hope that by entering the race he will regain his loyalists' support, yet Ayalon's people are convinced that those who back Ami will stick with him. On the other hand, Barak has an advantage at the Moshavim sector, where his supporter Shalom Simhon dominates and won almost 100 percent of the votes in the last primaries.

 

For the time being, the race for the Labor party's leadership is open. Wide open. Barak could surprise, yet he could also suffer defeat. There's no telling. Some of his close associates say he has nothing to lose. As it is, there will be another primary elections ahead of the next national elections, and failing to compete this time around would mean running away from responsibility and choosing the good life over the political quagmire.

 

For now, Barak is enjoying a relatively sympathetic media, experience as prime minister, and great appreciation for his professional, albeit not interpersonal, abilities.

 

The former prime minister hasn't changed when it comes to interpersonal skills. Not really. He's still an analytical robot who uses the people he needs and then completely ignores them. Yet it doesn't matter, his associates say, because at this time his defense and leadership qualities outweigh his weaknesses.

 

As to Ayalon, despite his popularity, he is still not truly a known figure. His views are covered in cellophane, his positions aren't clear and sharp, and he suffers from chronic inexperience in the political establishment. Therefore, Ayalon will have to prove that his lack of experience is better than the experience boasted by Barak, which wasn't a good experience, for those who still remember.

 

It's worthy to pay attention to…

…Binyamin "Fuad" Ben Eliezer, who really likes the new position he found for himself. Ben Eliezer has recently become the uniting father of the Labor party. I don't care about anything, he says, only the party. This position, for those who remember, was in the past held by Shimon Peres.

 

Ben Eliezer feels, or so it seems, that politically speaking his time has passed. He will not be the party's leader, and not the prime minister. So what's left is to maintain his power, and particularly the political legend called Fuad.

 

Therefore, this time he chose to stand by Barak, who he harshly criticized a year ago when Barak was coming back into politics. Ben Eliezer knows that with Barak he has a good chance to continue pulling the strings.

 


פרסום ראשון: 01.09.07, 13:35
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