IAF F-16
Photo: Reuters
Air show in Syria
Syrian account leaves the feeling that Israeli jets wanted to be spotted
It looks like a mirage. Something is seemingly taking before your eyes, but that's not what's really happening. The Israeli flyover that passed through Syria, according to the Syrians, at a low altitude above the Latakia area appears to be such illusion – the story behind the real story.
In the absence of an official Israeli version, we can only base our analysis on the Syrian account of the incident. And what the Syrians say creates a very odd picture, to say the least. A loud infiltration by Air Force jets, at midnight, in northern Syria. It's hard to be rid of the feeling that the planes in fact made every effort to be discovered.
Clash
Roee Nahmias and AP
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Such aerial strip show must have a reason that will justify, first and foremost, the risk to the lives of the pilots. It has to be a reason that is so worthy that it justifies the risk this flyover will leave behind it a trail of hot air that will light up the sparks along the border.
The Air Force has been flying both in Lebanon and Syria in the distant future, and also in the not so distant future. The aspiration is to acquire capabilities whereby the enemy only discovers the aerial infiltration at a very late phase, if at all.
The Air Force has the knowledge and means to do it. Indeed, in many cases the enemy didn't even know we paid a visit, and in many other cases it only discovered it when there was no longer any risk to the planes. In such cases there was no public announcement, to spare the embarrassment.
Yet yesterday, past midnight, according to Syrian witnesses, the planes appeared at low altitude and were apparently identified by Syrian radar a long time before they crossed the border – a fact that allowed Syria's anti-aircraft systems to prepare for their arrival.
The planes created sonic booms above Syria; residents spotted the jets, and the anti-aircraft systems fired at them – a real air show.
Supreme leadership test
On the face of it, such display at a time when Israel's political leadership is making every effort to allay tensions with Syria makes no sense. It's unreasonable. The Air Force doesn't work that way. After all, the attention of Syria's aerial defense systems is entirely focused at Israel.Why did they fly there? It's unlikely that someone felt like photographing northern Syria or Iraq, or other landscapes, in the middle of the night. The attempt to explain this aerial display as an effort aimed at "checking the alert level of Syria's defense systems," in that area exactly, on the border with Turkey, with the Syria army deployed against us at this time, makes no sense
The Arab media claim that the planes dropped some kind of armaments. This is incommensurate with the description of sonic booms. Planes that carry bombs on the outside do not create sonic booms.
If the Syrian account is true, the decision on sorties of the type carried out yesterday, according to Syria, is taken by the political leadership: The prime minister, defense minister, and sometimes the entire cabinet. Such decision is a supreme test of the leadership's judgment, knowledge, experience, and responsibility.
The official Israel, for the time being, chose a policy of ambiguity. At times, such ambiguity is aimed at hiding important strategic moves and keeping the enemy unaware. Ambiguity also aims to keep provocation of the enemy to a minimum so that it does not feel obligated to respond, and lets it enjoy the illusion that it succeeded in pushing Air Force planes out of Syrian airspace, for example.
However, at times ambiguity is also aimed at hiding problematic decisions, wild risks, and adventurism. As we don't know what hides behind the flyover, all we can do is hope that we can trust the people who decided on it. Defense Minister Barak has plenty of experience, Army Chief Ashkenazi is a top-notch professional, and the prime minister, following the Winograd Commission, may be more mature.
We also hope that this troika didn't invest this great effort, at a high risk, only in favor of some tactical move that would improve our situation tomorrow morning. Such action is justified only for an important objective – that is, something that will prove beneficial many years from now. We should leave the tactics for Gaza. Syria isn't Gaza.
For now it appears that the Syria's anger and indignation have been channeled to arrogant declarations for domestic purposes. This may be an indication that yesterday's incident will be recorded as yet another small-time event that led to a minor climax, yet had no fundamental effect on the high level of tension we've seen in the past year.
The incident also revealed that Israeli declarations regarding reduced tensions between us and the Syrians were made too early.
