Poll: 49% want Barkat as Jerusalem mayor
Dahaf Institute survey for Yedioth Jerusalem reveals 31% of capital residents would vote for MK Meir Porush in municipality elections, while 15% prefer business tycoon Arcadi Gaydamak as their mayor
Three months prior to the municipal elections and the political arena is switching gears. Yedioth Jerusalem conducted a special survey in the second week of August by means of the Dahaf Institute and headed by Dr. Mina Zemach
This was the most tempestuous week in which a decision was made that Meir Porush will be the haredi representative instead of the current mayor, Uri Lupolianski.
Another statistic that is also correlated with the elections and extremely interesting is the growing increase of ultra-Orthodox inhabitants. Seventy percent of those asked, and not only of the secular persuasion, believe that the city is becoming more and more haredi. Sixty-eight percent of the ultra-Orthodox people asked are sure of this statistic.
The survey’s findings are based on responses given by 500 Jerusalem residents who serve as statistical samples of people with the right to vote for the city’s next mayor.
1. If the elections for mayor were to be conducted today, would you participate in the voting?
Answers:
I would definitely participate: 68%
I think I would participate: 17%
I don’t think so: 6%
Definitely not: 7%
I don’t know/I haven’t decided: 2%
Result analysis:
The biggest question in these elections is whether or not the city’s secular residents will go out to vote this time. In the prior elections only 32% of them voted. However, according to the survey’s outcomes, this time it seems that most of the secular population, 73% are sure they will participate in the voting.
Moreover, 63% of the ultra-Orthodox community is sure they will participate as well and 7% of the seculars and 9% of the ultra-Orthodox are sure that they will not participate in the voting.
2. If the elections were to be conducted today and the candidates were Nir Barkat, Meir Porush and Arcadi Gaydamak, who would you vote for?
Answers:
Barkat: 49%
Porush: 31%
Gaydamak: 15%
I don’t know/I haven’t decided: 5%
Result analysis:
As of now these are the candidates for the mayoral position. The outcomes reveal that Barkat gained 2% of the haredi votes and Gaydamak received 11%. Porush, who is supposed to be the accepted candidate amongst the haredi population, has received only 82% of their support.
Barkat has received an overwhelming amount of votes amongst the religious and traditional voters. Sixty percent of the religious community and 73% of the traditional community support him.
Porush received only 25% of the religious and traditional votes. Even Gaydamak defeated him and managed to attain 37% of their votes. Amongst the secular community, Barkat received 76%, the billionaire received 19% and Porush received 1%.
3. If the candidates were Nir Barkat, Arcadi Gaydamak and Uri Lupolianski, who would you vote for then?
Answers:
Barkat: 45%
Lupolianski: 40%
Gaydamak: 11%
I don’t know/I haven’t decided: 4%
Result analysis:
Lupolianski has found himself in a trap as of late. On the one hand, he really wants to run for the position again and on the other hand he is committed to abide by the rotation agreement with Agudat Israel which he signed before the previous elections.
His associates still hope that the last published surveys which reveal Barkat’s clear victory over Porush, will cause the latter to recede his candidacy at the last minute.
In surveys conducted at the end of July, Lupolianski and Barkat broke even and according to Dr. Zemach’s poll, Barkat was victorious over the current mayor by a mere 5%.
An analysis of the outcomes shows that Barkat has a great advantage over Lupolianski in the religious and traditional sectors. Fifty percent of the religious people asked and 76% of the traditional participants voted for Barkat while Lupolianski received 38% of the religious votes and 10% of the traditional votes. Barkat is definitely popular amongst the seculars who provided him with 71% of the votes and Lupolianski surpassed Porush and received 10% support.
4. If Nir Barkat and Uri Lupolianski were the only candidates, who would you vote for?
Answers:
Barkat: 52%
Lupolianski: 44%
I don’t know/I haven’t decided: 4%
5. If Nir Barkat and Meir Porush were the only candidates?
Answers:
Barkat: 56%
Porush: 37%
I don’t know/I haven’t decided: 7%
6. Who would you prefer as an ultra-Orthodox representative in the municipality, Uri Lupolianski or Meir Porush?
Answers:
Lupolianski: 58%
Porush: 15%
Either one: 3%
Neither one: 15%
No answer: 9%
Result analysis:
56% of the haredim support the current mayor as opposed to 26% who prefer Porush, which shows that the rabbis will indeed instruct them to vote here, but most prefer that Lupolianski will continue to run for the position.
Just as surprising is the fact that 58% of the seculars would prefer seeing Lupolianski run again while 9% would want Porush to run. Moreover, 24% of the seculars think that neither one of them is worthy to run for the position and 15% of the haredim believe the same.
7. Based on your impression, do you think Jerusalem is becoming more haredi, secular or that no change has occurred regarding this issue?
Answers:
More haredi: 70%
More secular: 2%
No change: 25%
I don’t know: 3%
Result analysis:
There was recently a ceremony for the inauguration of the Chord Bridge, an occurrence which symbolized the growing haredi character of the city. The survey expressed the inhabitants feeling more than anything. Seventy percent of those asked are sure that the city is more haredi.
It is surprising that 63% of the haredim asked are sure that the city is more haredi. In addition, 31% of them think that no change has occurred and one percent thinks that the city is more secular.
Amongst the secular denomination, 87% think that city is more haredi than it used to be while 4% think that the city is more secular than in the past. Eight percent think that no change has occurred.
* A deviation of 4% may exist
