Iran's Ahmadinejad at nuclear facility
Photo: AFP
Report: Iran could build nuclear bomb by 2010
Iran will amass enough low-enriched uranium in 2009 to have the ability to build nuclear bomb by end of 2010, International Institute for Strategic Studies reports
Iran could cross the vital technological threshold needed to produce a nuclear bomb by the year 2010, the British Daily Telegraph reported on Wednesday.
According to the report, based on a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, from the moment the threshold is crossed Iran will be able to produce its first nuclear bomb within one-year's time.
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It should be noted that this report supports estimates made by Israeli intelligence officials several years ago that were considered by international bodies to be "exaggerated" for a long time.
Mark Fitzpatrick, the senior fellow for non-proliferation at the IISS, said, "This year, it's very likely that Iran will have produced enough low-enriched uranium which, if further enriched, could constitute enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon, if that is the route Iran so desires."
Further enrichment to produce weapons-grade uranium would take at least 12 months after the threshold that Iran is likely to reach at the end of this year. Iran's scientists will have to overcome numerous technical hurdles and fully master the enrichment of uranium before this can happen.
The process of enriching low-grade uranium to weapons-grade uranium is a technological complex process, and even more so as the Iranians have been met with a number of hurdles in operating their gas centrifuges.
Another problem facing Iran is the decreasing amount of unrefined uranium at its disposal. The London Times reported four days ago that the international community was focusing its efforts preventing Iran form obtaining more uranium and urging uranium exporters not to do business with the Islamic Republic.
The International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report said that Iran was running 3,820 centrifuges to enrich uranium to four percent purity. So far, 630kg of low-enriched uranium had been produced.
Uranium enriched at this purity level can be used to run nuclear power stations, which is Iran's officially stated sole intention.
However, if enriched to 87.5% or more, the uranium will become the essential material needed for military use.
During the enrichment process, Iran will have to expel the IAEA inspectors from its facilities, which would give the international community some warning time before Iran reaches its nuclear bomb.
Meanwhile, Iran is working to create a nuclear warhead that could be installed on a long-range ballistic missile. At present, Iran has Shahab-3 missiles with a range of about 1,250 miles, and the IAEA claims the country is working vigorously towards converting these to carry nuclear warheads.
Documents in the hands of the IAEA suggest Iranian scientists have studied how to convert these weapons to carry nuclear warheads.
