Quiet year for Israel
Ron Ben-Yishai says 2009 featured exceptional calm vis-à-vis Palestinians, Hezbollah
Part 1 of article
Meanwhile, the number of attempted attacks along the Gaza Strip fence declined significantly. Most of the attacks were in the form of gunfire that did not cause any casualties. There were two or three incidents where Gaza terrorists attempted to abduct Israeli soldiers or civilians, yet these attempts were foiled quickly and effectively.
We started 2009 on the wrong foot. IDF forces were fighting in the Gaza Strip, while rocket barrages fired by Hamas were exploding in southern Israel. However, the security situation is immeasurably better today.
Indeed, we still see infrequent Qassam and mortar attacks originating in the Gaza Strip, with 242 rockets and shells fired at our territory since January (most of them in the first two months immediately after Operation Cast Lead.) However, compared to the previous year, this is a 90% decline.
Optimism
Military Intelligence chief says not one soldier, civilian killed in terror attacks in recent months, but clarifies enemies not resting for a moment
On the northern front, the situation is even better. In the past three years, ever since the Second Lebanon War, we’ve enjoyed unprecedented peace on the Lebanon and Syria borders. While several rockets were fired at the Galilee, they were meant as a provocation by global Jihad groups trying to force Hezbollah into a clash with Israel.
All the incidents on the northern front, including the explosions at Hezbollah arms depots attributed to Israel, as well as the fire direct at Israeli aircraft flying reconnaissance missions in Lebanon’s airspace, faded almost as quickly as they took place.
Israel’s restored deterrence
In Judea and Samaria we’ve also seen the kind of calm we haven’t experienced in 16 years. When it comes to terror, calm is of course a relative matter, and this year too we saw shooting attacks, stabbing attacks, the hurling of Molotov cocktails, and stoning incidents. However, there were fewer such incidents compared to previous years, and in most cases the attacks were carried out by individuals.
There were also several attempts to smuggle in explosive devices as part of plans to carry out suicide attacks; however, these were quickly thwarted by the Shin Bet and IDF, and in some cases by Palestinian security forces trained by the US and Europe under General Dayton’s command.
In 2009, the number of casualties among civilians and security forces as result of hostile acts was the lowest in years. Following the end of Operation Cast Lead (January 19,) a total of three people were killed in terror attacks in Judea and Samaria (a child and two police officers.) Meanwhile, the Border Guard lost four troops and another 64 were hurt at all fronts.
This relative calm, the likes of which hasn’t been seen around here for almost 20 years, is mostly a result of Israeli deterrence, which was restored after more than 10 years of erosion.
The beginning of this process goes back to 2006. The destructive blows delivered by the IDF in the Second Lebanon War, the resilience shown by Israel’s home front in the face of rocket barrages, and no less significantly, the very willingness of Israel’s government to embark on the war prompted Hezbollah and its patrons to reconsider their strategic path.
Nasrallah’s “spider web theory” made way for far-reaching restraint and caution in respect to conduct vis-à-vis Israel. A similar effect, for precisely the same reasons, followed (and still persists) Operation Cast Lead in 2009, restraining Hamas’ leadership.
Meanwhile, Syria drew its own conclusions in 2007 and in 2008 in the wake of the bombing of the nuclear site it built with North Korean assistance, as well as mysterious assassinations of terrorists and nuclear officials in its territory.
Part 2 of article to appear Monday evening
