Back to square one
Op-ed: With freeze deal officially dead, Israeli-Palestinian conflict to enter waiting period
Tuesday morning Netanyahu declared that he will work towards establishing a regional firefighting force comprising Russia, Greece, Turkey, and Arab states. Tuesday evening he announced the name of the firefighting squadron to be acquired by Israel – Elad, named after high school student Elad Riven who was killed in the terrible fire while trying to save the prison guards trapped on the bus.
And after all that, we are left with the F-35 stealth fighter squadron; only a month ago Netanyahu informed his top government ministers about their expected arrival, free of charge. According to the understandings between him and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the price agreed upon for the precious gift was Israeli extension of the construction freeze in the territories by 90 days.
Yet Tuesday it turned out, conclusively and officially, that the stealth aircraft evaded us. There is no deal with the Americans, there is no freeze, and there are no negotiations with the Palestinians. We’re back to square one.
So what do we have? It depends on who you ask. Officials close to Netanyahu are convinced that the dialogue with the Americans at this time is much firmer and closer than it was on the day the prime minister took office. They explain that the American side reached the conclusion that even if Netanyahu extends the freeze, shortly thereafter the Palestinians will make sure to produce a crisis, preventing the possibility of completing the talks on future borders.
America powerless
Netanyahu, who was subjected to brutal pressure by the Obama Administration, agreed to a 10-month freeze about a year ago. From that moment on he became a means to an end for the Americans, who realized they can get more and more concessions out of him. The Palestinians, as opposed to US estimates, did not step back, and with international support continued to demand a complete freeze that would also include the greater Jerusalem. Moreover, they managed to convince the international community to support them in respect to recognizing a Palestinian state in line with the 1967 borders.
The US Administration remained powerless. At a time where the secrets of this great power’s diplomatic work are being exposed, Washington is mostly embarrassed and conveys a sense of weakness.
If we sum up all of the above, we discover a clear bottom line: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will now go into a waiting period while seeking renewed dialogue via secret channels. Whatever is exposed to daylight gets burned.
As to the political implications expected in the wake of the declaration of the failure of the contacts, Netanyahu can relax. I count on Defense Minister Barak and his Labor Party colleagues to come up with reasons to stay in the government. The settlers will continue to do their thing, and Shas will declare that it’s in favor of peace, but not at any price – it depends how many yeshiva students Netanyahu agrees to pay for.
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