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Lost his best source of support
Photo: AFP
No Arab 'safety net'
Photo: AFP

Palestinians? Not now

Arab world undergoing historic changes, has no time for Palestinians. Part 1 of Ynet analysis

Part 1 of analysis

 

The diplomatic battle between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ahead of the United Nations General Assembly session in September has been raging in many theaters worldwide. In one arena at least, the Palestinian win was never in doubt. The support of Arab states seems to have been taken for granted, yet an analysis of recent events in the region shows that the Arab world’s position should not encourage the Palestinians, as it mostly reflects domestic preoccupation with the latest Mideastern developments.

 

The Arab League’s monitoring committee met at the end of May in Qatar, where it voiced its support in seeking UN endorsement for Palestinian statehood. The meeting’s concluding statement noted that the committee decided to approach the UN in order to seek full membership for the state of Palestine, on the basis of the 1967 borders and east Jerusalem as its capital. Yet the statement, which did not surprise anyone, did not take into account the changes in the region, and now it turns out that the Palestinian move is coinciding with one of the most dramatic eras in Arab world history.

 

Since the start of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians in 1993, Arab leaders made their sympathies clear. Some of them opposed the process, others endorsed it, and yet others went as far as to exert pressure for a deal (for example, Hosni Mubarak, who reprimanded Yasser Arafat at the Paris Agreement ceremony and according to some of those present even swore at him.)

 

Mubarak’s absence 

And that’s the issue right now. At this time, no Arab leader can grant the Palestinians a “safety net” that would allow them to show flexibility on any matter. During the negotiations between Ehud Barak and Arafat in Camp David, the latter phoned the Egyptian president and Saudi king in order to elicit support for concessions. Yet today the situation is wholly different. Indeed, prominent Arab leaders are preoccupied with political survival and nobody has the ability or desire to assume further risk.

 

The dramatic change in Egypt in recent months represents the greatest loss for Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Ever since Mubarak was toppled, the PA chairman lost the most significant source of support in the Arab world or anywhere else. The ousted Egyptian president despised Hamas on the one hand, while endorsing the diplomatic process on the other. He was present at all peace ceremonies and conventions and generally speaking never ceased to convey the following message to Israel: You must move forward.

 

Now that Mubarak is gone, Abbas feels his absence. The head of Egypt’s ruling military council, Mohamed Tantawi, will not be willing to take risks for Abbas and will not deviate from his public position on the Palestinians. That’s the last thing he needs when the masses on the streets are already protesting against his ruling establishment. Tantawi fears that a wrong move on his part will see him joining his former colleagues, who are currently playing soccer in a Cairo prison yard. Other senior Egyptian officials are also not expected to undertake dramatic moves.

 

Part 2 of article to focus on developments in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia

 

 


פרסום ראשון: 06.21.11, 18:29
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