Poll: No big changes in political landscape
Dahaf survey hints that recent shifts in Israeli politics will lead to only minor changes in distribution of political power
A poll commissioned by Yedioth Ahronoth reveals that if the general elections would be held today, Yair Lapid's party would bite into Kadima's electorate, but would not have a significant impact on the political landscape.
The poll, carried out by the Dahaf Institute, said Tuesday that Lapid's party would get 11 mandates, the Likud would get 28 mandates and Yisrael Beiteinu would get 15 mandates.
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Labor, with Noan Shalit on its roster, would get 13 mandates and Kadima would get 13 mandates, while Shas and United Torah Judaism would get six mandates each.
Tuesday's poll gave Aryeh Deri's future party five mandates, Meretz and Habayit Hayehudi four mandates each, and the National Union and Green Party two mandates.
The Arab parties – Balad, Hadash and United Arab List-Ta'al – garnered 11 mandates collectively.
The poll further found that the introduction of new party's to Israel's political landscape will not affect it dramatically: The Right bloc stands to have 61 Knesset members, while the Left-Center bloc is likely to have 54 MKs – in which case Aryeh Deri's party would tip the scales.
The poll also explored the possibility that MK Shaul Mofaz would win Kadima's coming primaries over Tzipi Livni – but foresaw that such an outcome would be highly detrimental to the party, and will shrink its power to only eight mandates.
A hypothetical scenario in which Lapid decided to join Kadima would vastly improve the party's political standing, giving it 29 mandates and turning it to the biggest faction in the House.
Such a scenario would see the Left-Center bloc get 57 mandates vis-à-vis the Right's 58 seats.
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