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Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
Ronen Bergman

Cold War II declared in Munich

Op-ed: The general atmosphere at the 2016 Munich Security Conference was one of despair, confusion and belligerence. The Russians bickered with NATO on every topic, with Russian PM declaring the situation has deteriorated ‘to the level of a cold war’; meanwhile, no one talked about the Palestinians, and Iranian FM Zarif failed to draw the same crowds he did in the past.

On stage in Munich, in an almost formal manner, the renewal of the Cold War was announced.

 

 

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev clearly stated that Russian-NATO relations have deteriorated "to the level of a cold war" and added, "Sometimes I do not know if we are in 2016 or 1962."

 

The remarks came after a heavy exchange of verbal blows among the representatives of Europe, NATO and the Kremlin at the 2016 Munich Security Conference - the most important world forum for foreign relations, intelligence, and security. There was no topic about which they did not bicker, blaming each other for the same things, only in reverse.

 

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev giving an interview on the sidelines of the 2016 Munich Securit Conference (Photo: EPA)
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev giving an interview on the sidelines of the 2016 Munich Securit Conference (Photo: EPA)
 

 

In general, the conference inspired a deep sense of despair on almost every issue discussed in it: Refugees in Europe, Russian involvement in Ukraine, the war in Syria. If anyone needed proof that Russians are doing whatever they want in the Middle East, they should just look at how the agreement among the world powers for a ceasefire in Syria collapsed, shortly after it was signed.

 

Intelligence officials from the United States and Europe told Yedioth Ahronoth that the agreement on the definitive ceasefire would collapse within a few days. In fact, it had no chance in the first place and it is intended, according to one of the officials, "to enable the Munich conference in good spirits."

 

Another official said that the agreement "demonstrates the naivety of the US Secretary of State, as if it is possible to persuade the Russians to cease the use of force in Syria."

 

The agreement provides, among other things, that the Russians and the Americans decide in tandem which targets can be hit, and which targets the Russians must desist from harming. But even before the ink dried on the agreement, the fighting continued and the agreement was violated. British intelligence and US military officials told me that the Russian military, in cooperation with Syria, Hezbollah and Iran, did not stop bombing civilians for even one moment.

 

The agreement is in effect the final seal of the absolute failure of American foreign policy in Syria. It allows the Russians to continue to intervene in the affairs of another country and essentially recognizes Putin's military as an entity that is allowed to fight on Syrian soil. At the same time, it does not specify what the US will do if Russia did not fulfill the agreement.

 

Over the weekend, coming as the United States accuse Russia again, rightly so, for the umpteenth time, of breaching the agreement, what will happen is exactly what happened countless of times before - nothing at all.

 

Iran? Boring. Palestinians? No one cares

Meanwhile, there are two pieces of news, one is good and one less so, which should be of interest to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from the Munich Conference.

 

Let's start with the good news, at least as far as Israeli foreign policy is concerned: The conference started with, and ended in, a difficult atmosphere of despair, confusion and belligerence. However, unlike in some of the past 51 conferences, no one blamed Israel for this atmosphere. Other than the obligatory statements of a few Arab representatives, no one tried to claim that Israel has anything to do with the general turmoil in the world - ISIS, the Russian aggression in Ukraine and Syria, and the refugee crisis. Israel is only mildly relevant to those issues, if at all.

 

The Palestinian issue wasn't part of the agenda in any of the panels at the conference, and apart from being touched on during Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon's speech - it wasn't even mentioned. If the Munich conference is a measure of what's going on in the field of international relations and diplomacy, it can be said that in 2016 - the Palestinians don't interest anyone. Europe has much more pressing issues of its own, difficult and significant, to deal with. It's hard to imagine that in the new world that is emerging, anyone in the West - let alone the United States – will have the time, resources, or desire to put any real pressure on Israel.

 

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon at the Munich security conference (Photo: Defense Ministry)
Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon at the Munich security conference (Photo: Defense Ministry)

 

The Russian prime minister’s speech also included some sort of achievement for Israeli diplomacy. Medvedev called on the world to unite in the fight against terror, mentioning a number of incidents as examples everyone should unite in opposing - "The downing of the Russian plane in the Sinai, the terror attacks in Paris, London, Israel, Pakistan, Iraq, and other countries." This was one of the first times a non-American head of state spoke about the terror attacks in Israel in the same breath as attacks by ISIS – a comparison that the Netanyahu administration frequently makes.

 

On the other hand, the heavy atmosphere caused by the colossal failure of European and American foreign policy towards Russia and Syria led to the other negative piece of news for Israel that emerged from the conference. The failure in Syria put pressure on the Americans and Europeans to highlight their successes, or more accurately, what's being forecasted to be their only success: The nuclear deal with Iran. All of the speakers (except Defense Minister Ya'alon and US Sen. John McCain) - led by conference chairman and one of the more important people in the field of diplomatic relations, Wolfgang Ischinger - crowned the agreement a great achievement, a triumph of diplomacy over war, a brilliant move by diplomats from many different countries who made a great, unprecedented effort to prevent conflict, and succeeded.

 

And this is being said by those who actually care about the Iran deal. The star of the last two conferences was Muhammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs. He's articulate, sophisticated, smiling, and speaks to the West in its own language – so very different from his frowning predecessors, with their benighted, Holocaust-denying mindsets. The Iranian nuclear project was the most important topic on the conferences' agenda, especially considering the harsh sanctions imposed on Iran, the massive losses for Western companies, and the threat of an Israeli strike. The panels held about it, and especially Zarif's speech, were packed. By comparison, the discussion on the refugee crisis was scheduled for 10:30pm last year, and was embarrassingly empty.

 

This year though, everything was turned on its head. The discussions on the refugee crisis were what garnered the most interest. Even though the conference's chairman, Wolfgang Ischinger, attempted to give Zarif a prime time slot - early afternoon on Friday - the hall was almost half empty. The Iranian nuclear project, which has been defined by the Israeli intelligence community as the number one threat to the Jewish state, no longer interests the world. It's a thing of the past which came and went. The fad is over.

 

The general disinterest of the international community in the Iranian nuclear program has dual meaning for Israel. The first - as much as Israel wishes to confront Iran - by all the means at its disposal - it will have to do it alone. This concern was validated at the conference in Munich. In conversations I held with high ranking US and European intelligence officials, they indicated that they would pay lip service to the issue, but that they've placed the matter far from first place in their priority list.

 

Secondly, the declining interest in the Iranian nuclear issue in the West is yet more proof of the expanding gulf between the worries of the government of Israel (Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran), and the worries of their counterparts in the West (Russia, ISIS, and the refugees).

 

 

 


פרסום ראשון: 02.18.16, 20:29
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