Sharon's one hit wonder
History doesn't bode well for the Kadima Party
The phrase is attributed to a senior official in a major Israeli city who knows only too well. If I were to reveal his name in public it would go straight on a blacklist of a man who never forgets and never forgives. So why should he?
Israel's political establishment finds itself today in a tizzy, and it would seem that the Kadima Party, like a vicious bacteria that devours everything in sight. The number of Knesset seats it is currently guaranteed by polls to get - with an emphasis on currently - is larger than the number of people it's got fill those spots.
Pretty soon they are going to have to place an ad in the "help wanted" section, something like, "Have you ever wanted to be a member of the Knesset? Now may be your chance."
One piece of advice for Kadima candidates: Israeli history suggests strongly that you slow down a bit. You could wind up running too fast and burning yourselves out near the beginning of your path as a new faction.
One hit wonders
Political history says Kadima will be a "one hit wonder." Long-term political players must be careful – they won't get far with Kadima.
Not that one hit wonders can't do great things in Israeli politics: The cursed Dash Party brought the Likud to power in 1977 after decades of Labor government. Yitzhak Mordechai's and Amnon Lipkin-Shahak's Center Party "stuck it" to Bibi Netanyahu and Ezer Weizman's Yahad Party brought Shimon Peres to power, even though it could have done so for the Likud.
There have been others: Ben Gurion's Rafi Party, the 1980s-era Sephardi Tami Party come readily to mind, but they have failed to leave their mark on Israeli politics.
What are the signs of a one hit wonder like Kadima?
1. "Refugee Camp." Impatience and lack of time force the party to take in the cast offs whose main abilities lie in the fact that they have always been able to make the headlines. Once-off parties have no time to develop abilities, to "stretch things out" for years. The party's election list must immediately include all the "stars" – particularly those who can get themselves on TV.
2. Weak ideological platform. Too many people in the new political refugee camp makes it impossible to formulate a sharp, aggressive clear ideology. The roof of this organization must be high enough to include e-v-e-r-y-b-o-d-y, from Shaul Mofaz to Chaim Ramon. Historical experience teaches that immediately after Election Day, this political roof will begin to crumble, and only the leadership of the party leader will be able to prevent a total disintegration.
3. "Whirl." The Israeli people's thirst for a new, different politic makes the one hit wonder party far more attractive than is reasonable. Many people wake up in the morning, read about the new framework, and they start to move." But after the election they think to themselves: Hey, this guy Olmert's been in politics for years. Same thing for Sharon and Peres and Gidon Ezra and Chaim Ramon and Dalia Itzik.
4. Fighting for the future. The politician has yet to be born who sets his sights on one four-year term in office. Because of this, as soon as Kadima's Knesset members take office they will immediately need an eye doctor. For the whole term of the next (17th) Knesset, they will squint right and left to figure out where they'll jump for the 18th Knesset.
They know what we all know: Sharon is no spring chicken, Peres was weaned from his pacifier long ago, and the others – a flood. The MKs will thank both of them, as well as Kadima, but they will think even more of the future. And this is a recipe for disaster.
And some words in conclusion: if Kadima gets seats (personally, I don't see it), it will be a political earthquake the likes of which has never been seen here, and will create fertile ground for complete political reorganization for the 18th Knesset.
Should this occur, it will be possible to say, historically, that Ariel Sharon "devoured" Israeli politics whole, which will then begin life anew.
