Giladi: People will move on their own
Photo: Ronny Gal
The second disengagement, or the realignment as it has been recently dubbed, "will not be a military operation but rather a choice by the citizens to move out," predicts Brig. General (Retired) Eival Giladi, the architect and coordinator of the Gaza Strip disengagement.
Speaking at the national security research center in Haifa University, Giladi said that a new evacuation-compensation law expected to be passed in the beginning of 2007 is the main driving force expect to expedite the "move" out of the West Bank.
Giladi, who headed coordination and strategy before and during the disengagement at the Prime Minister's Office, said that the equivalent process in the West Bank will not take years. "There is not going to be another disengagement in a military manner where the army and police will evacuate people from their homes – not in 2006, not in 2007, and not in 2008. It seems that a certain dynamics are developing that will allow people to begin moving out as a choice."
"Imagine that in the beginning of 2007 a new evacuation-compensation law that suits those people will be enacted and they will evacuate because they want to," said Giladi.
"No one will evacuate them; I don't see the same model as previously, of the Sela Disengagement Authority, and I don't think the government should repeat something that we were unsuccessful at. But we will offer financial incentives and people will decide, they will have time. With no rush. It's not going be an evacuation that will last three-four weeks," he explained.
That "financial compensation" according to Giladi should be based on a model that will estimate the value of the house, the business that the evacuee owned or worked at, seniority, and other considerations. At the end of it all, he estimates, a large part of the settlements will leave. "In a settlement that has five-six families left, even the supermarket will find it worthless to operate."
Another issue Giladi discussed at the Haifa University was the Hamas, saying that he didn't expect the Hamas to govern the Palestinian Authority. He also thinks that Hamas will not change its ideology soon but it may change the line-up of its government.
"The Hamas will change its ideology quickly and easily. It's not a Hamas 'problem' only; the Jewish people spent 2,000 years in the Diaspora without changing its beliefs. What is achievable is a thorough change in the means and patterns of conduct.
I presume that we will witness a change in four to five months. I don't think it will be in a way of elections, but there is a good chance that reality will force the Hamas government to fall, and they will establish a new one, composed of different partnership."