Defending ourselves against messianic movements
A soft hand will not appease religious fanatics and will not force them to seek appropriate solutions
The Lebanese army, whose troops are primarily Shiites, will groan in agreement to the assignment it has been given, and will do very little to fulfill it.
Sooner or later a ceasefire will be reached, but it will only serve as a lull leading to the next campaign. Hizbullah will not disarm as long as the division of political power in Lebanon discriminates the Shiites.
The discriminating government will come to an end when the majority of seats on the Lebanese government are taken up by Shiites, then they wouldn't need an armed militia. This ethnic group comprises half of the Lebanese population; however, when dividing the power among the various groups, the important political posts are allocated to the Christians and Sunnis.
Shiite roots
Their roots lie in the history of modern Lebanon, a country established by the Western world in order to enable the Maronite people to rule. Their leaders, people of the capital and mountains of Lebanon, urged the ruling powers in the area to expand their territory, and in so doing brought about their demise.
They believed that they could maintain their hegemony forever, vis-à-vis the masses of poor, ignorant Shiite farmers. They didn't foresee that a day would come when these poor people would demand a fair part in the prosperous country.
The Beirut bubble began to burst in the 80's, when hundreds of thousands of Shiites fled from the south to find a source of livelihood and to get out of the battleground raging in the vicinity of their homes. The Shiite proletarian in Beirut became the furnace of the revolution. The Israeli occupation accelerated a process that would have evolved nonetheless. It transformed the Shiites into the protectors of Lebanon. This is Ariel Sharon's contribution to our neighbor's history.
The awakening
The awakening of the Shiites in Lebanon closely coincided with a theological change that took place in the Shiite religion. For more than 1,300 years, Shiite followers were obliged to accept the humiliation of a lifetime of suffering while believing they would be compensated in life after death. Only in the 50's did the religious clerics - teachers at the colleges of the holy cities of Iran and southern Iraq – develop activist disciplines. The Hizbullah was established by Lebanese and Iranian Shiites who absorbed these disciplines, going on to create a massive network of social and economic institutions that made up for the failures of the central government.
The movement's leadership lives by a messianic ideology, similar to the one followed by the Ayatollahs in Iran, and uncannily resembling the ideology in Israeli society that supports messianic elements. The role they have taken upon themselves is to impose the Shiite Islamic faith on the world, and to welcome the coming of Mahdi, the successor of the prophet Mohammed.
The destruction of Israel, the killing of Jews and the conquest of Jerusalem are at the basis of their beliefs.
Looking at the constraints of reality
When a movement of this type succeeds and ripens, it is forced to look at the constraints of reality and develop a solution that minimizes the gap between pure ideology and necessary pragmatism. Paradox: Conquest of the regime exacerbates the need for compromise. A Hizbullah government in Lebanon would not be able to cast the responsibility for its failures on the discriminating government, because it will be the body governing the country.
That's what's happening to the Hamas at an agonizingly slow pace, and may very well happen to the Hizbullah as well, with whom we may be forced to talk openly in a few years from now.
This forecast, if accepted, could effect Israel's calculations in two opposite directions. There are those who will say that we must calm the flames, in order to give a chance to the moderate forces among the Shiites, who are not all messianic fundamentalists.
No soft hand
Others, including ourselves, believe that our strength derives from the constraints of reality, and the Shiite leadership will have to deal with it. A soft hand will not appease religious fanatics and will not force them to seek appropriate solutions. Namely, we should hit them as hard as we can, while taking into account our diplomatic and military constraints.
