The card dealer from Minsk
Lieberman played his cards right, but does he secretly want to be leader of opposition?
At this time, the reader Avigdor Lieberman is sitting somewhere in Minsk, or Pinsk, or Plonsk, towns that once upon a time were the basis for jokes about two Jews traveling in a train; today, Israel’s premiership candidates are looking to them. The reader Lieberman is sitting there, with a vodka bottle on the table and Belarusians all around, enjoying his vacation more than he ever enjoyed a vacation in his life.
I have no idea what exactly he said in the separate meetings he held Wednesday with Tzipi Livni
and Benjamin Netanyahu.
I can only say what I would have told them if I was in his place. Tzipi, I would say, we are old friends. None of us wants to see Bibi going to the president next week with 65 mandates in his pocket – you have your reasons and I have my reasons. I am willing to rain on his parade, on one condition – that you won’t go directly to Bibi and finalize an agreement with him behind my back.
Whatever you have to say about the slogans circulated by Lieberman, he understands politics. As opposed to other politicians, who go into over-active mode during a time of crisis – attending meetings, submitting to interviews, and sweating themselves to death – Lieberman knows the secret of detachment.
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Livni knows that Lieberman is the only lever she has left in an attempt to force Likud to share power. Avigdor, she says, I give you my word.
From Livni, Lieberman went to Netanyahu. Had I been Lieberman, I would tell Bibi that we have known each other for many years. You know I am a man of my word. Yisrael Beiteinu was and will remain part of the Right. If you accept our demands, we shall go with you, on one condition – you will not go directly to Tzipi and finalize a deal behind my back.
He said it, and went away, leaving behind a mutual restraining order to both candidates. Netanyahu is scared that if he calls Livni he will ruin his chances to create an anti-Livni bloc; Livni is scared that if she calls Netanyahu, she will ruin her chances to bring down the anti-Livni bloc. As the two heads are not talking, and in the absence of negotiation dynamics, the politicians on both sides are pushed into making accusations and counter-accusations. In Likud’s view, Livni is not a patriot. In Kadima’s view, Netanyahu is only thinking about his own good.
Peres to join game
Patriotism aside, at least 10 members on the Likud roster are certain that God chose them to be ministers in the next government. A joint Likud-Kadima government will reduce their chances to be granted a senior portfolio and may even keep them out of the government. With every passing day, their pressure on Netanyahu to go for a narrow government grows.
The election results brought Netanyahu and Livni into a poker game. The game requires coolness, patience, and the ability to deceive the other players. Both of them do not excel on those fronts; meanwhile, the card dealer sits in Minsk.
On Wednesday, Lieberman will see a rival emerging: Shimon Peres. If Lieberman adopted the role of divider, then Peres will take the role of mediator. Why don’t you meet Livni? He will ask Netanyahu. Why don’t you meet Netanyahu? He will ask Livni. For a few days, he will be making headlines, until Lieberman will steal them again.
Meanwhile, some Israelis, roughly seven million of them, will ask: Why can’t Netanyahu and Livni put an end to this story between the two of them? They should go for mediation. Or have a draw. They can even consult the horoscope, as long as they get it over with. Indeed, a rotation would slightly short-change the Right. On the other hand, it would guarantee stability. The last government around here that stayed in power for its entire term in office – four years and two months – was a rotation government. This happened two decades ago.
We can understand why Netanyahu rules out rotation. Alternately, he can offer a partition government, that is, an equal number of ministers for both parties. This arrangement should not bother him – it will only bother a few former Likud ministers who are hungry for a post.
En route to a joint government, Netanyahu and Livni will have to shun a few partners. They won’t make it too far with an 88-member coalition ranging from the far Right all the way to the Left. As Netanyahu is deeply entangled with Shas, it is possible that Lieberman would end up being the one left out at the end. Perhaps this is what he secretly wishes for, while enjoying the good life somewhere in Minsk – being the leader of the Opposition.
