Missile launch test in Iran (archive)
Photo: AFP

Report: Israeli attack on Iran would start long war

Oxford Research Group says military action should be ruled out as response to Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions, suggests Israel's capabilities increased

An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would start a long war and probably not prevent Iran from eventually acquiring nuclear weapons, a think-tank said on Thursday.


Oxford Research Group, which promotes non-violent solutions to conflict, said military action should be ruled out as a response to Iran's possible nuclear weapons ambitions.


"An Israeli attack on Iran would be the start of a protracted conflict that would be unlikely to prevent the eventual acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and might even encourage it," it said in a report.


It would also lead to instability and unpredictable security consequen

ces for the region and the wider world, it added.


The United Nations Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran last month over a nuclear program the West suspects is aimed at developing atomic weapons in secret. Iran says it wants nuclear energy for peaceful uses only.


The report, by Paul Rogers, professor of peace studies at the University of Bradford, said US military action against Iran appeared unlikely but Israel's capabilities had increased.


"Long-range strike aircraft acquired from the United States, combined with an improved fleet of tanker aircraft, the deployment of long-range drones and the probable availability of support facilities in northeast Iraq and Azerbaijan, all increase Israel's potential for action against Iran," it said.


Israeli leaders usually speak only of leaving all options on the table, although Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon said in May that Israel had the capability to hit Iran.


Israel is widely believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal. The Jewish state neither confirms nor denies this.


Three to seven years

The Oxford report estimated it might take three to seven years for Iran to develop a small arsenal of nuclear weapons if it decided to do so. It said there was no firm evidence such a decision had been taken by the Islamic Republic.


Any Israeli strike would be focused not only on destroying nuclear and missile targets but would also hit factories and research centers and even university laboratories to damage Iranian expertise, the report said.


This would cause many civilian casualties, it added.


Military action would include the direct bombing of targets in Tehran and probably include attempts to kill technocrats who managed Iran's nuclear and missile programs, the report said.


Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri alleged on Wednesday that had been abducted in Saudi Arabia and flown to the United States. Washington denies kidnapping him. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Amiri was on his way back home.


Iran's responses to an Israeli attack could include withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and immediate action to produce nuclear weapons to deter further attacks, the report said.


They could also include missile attacks on Israel, closing the Strait of Hormuz to push up oil prices and paramilitary or missile attacks on Western oil facilities in the Gulf.


After a first strike, Israel might have to carry out regular air strikes to stop Iran developing atom bombs and medium-range missiles, the report said. "Iranian responses would also be long-term, ushering in a lengthy war with global as well as regional implications," Rogers said.


Other options open to the West were to redouble efforts to get a diplomatic settlement or accept that Iran may eventually acquire a nuclear capability and use that as the start of a process of balanced regional de-nuclearization, the report said.





פרסום ראשון: 07.15.10, 00:58
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