The poll, conducted by Yedioth Ahronoth and Mina Tzemach among 502 people who reflect the voting population in Israel, shows the Likud party will win 29 mandates, regardless of the identity of Kadima's chairperson.
According to the poll, Yair Lapid is expected to obtain 13 mandates if Livni will head Kadima, and 14 if Mofaz wins the party primary. Similar to Likud, the Labor party will likely not be affected by the identity of Kadima's head, and is expected to receive 13 mandates in the next elections.
Shas will obtain nine mandates if Livni will win the primaries and eight if Mofaz come out on top. Meretz will win four mandates if Livni is the head of Kadima and three if Mofaz heads the party, the poll showed. Aryeh Deri is expected to obtain two mandates, while Ehud Barak's Atzma'ut party will not pass the qualifying threshold.
The poll also predicts 11 mandates for the Arab parties, combined, and six mandates for United Torah Judaism. Habayit Hayehudi and National Union party will receive three mandates each, according to the poll.
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