Which way will Netanyahu jump?
Analysis: Will prime minister veer right, and finally sign a coalition agreement with his 'natural partners', or is he planning a secret deal with Herzog - so secret that even Zionist Union leader is unaware?
One intriguing and as yet unanswered question this week was what would be the impact of an agreement with Iran and the crisis with the United States on Israeli politics and the formation of the new government. Will these twin crises force Benjamin Netanyahu to call for a unity government? Will this be Isaac Herzog's excuse when he announces that he is joining?
It is in Netanyahu's DNA, before Iran and before anything else, to kill his opponent. To lure him into the government and ensnare him in a honey trap, which is exactly what he did to Yair Lapid. His second ambition is to lead by consensus, to present the world with a sane and moderate face. But this time it is different: the prime minister explicitly pledged before the elections that he would not establish a unity government with Herzog and Livni.
It will be hard to climb down from such a rigid position, especially when it is no longer the Labor Party of Ehud Barak in 2009. This time it is the party of Stav Shaffir, Merav Michaeli and Itzik Shmuli - the younger generation of the Labor Party that is imbued with ideology.
Were it not for his vow not to align with Labor and fear of reviving Bayit Yehdui leader Naftali Bennett from the dead by snubbing him, Netanyahu would be knee deep in secret negotiations with Herzog, winning him over as only Netanyahu knows how.
Meanwhile, his current potential partners are not making it easy. Moshe Kahlon, in Netanyahu's view, is playing with fire. Given the number of seats that his Kulanu party won, it is doubtful that he would have been given the finance portfolio. And yet Kahlon is not satisfied with such a prestigious position, he has also presented a long list of demands that to the prime minister seems provocative.
Netanyahu, who already suffers from paranoia, is certain Kahlon wants to form a government within a government. In Netanyahu's mind, Kahlon intends to establish committees and sub-committees under the guise of reform, which would bypass the Knesset committees and provide them with the powers equal to those of the original committees. He wants to render other ministries meaningless.
In short, he sees Khalon's demands as intended to strengthen his power to rival that of the prime minister. Netanyahu is asking himself, which is better for him - to work with Khalon, who is plotting against him, or bring in Herzog and make him into an obedient and grateful partner.
There is also the question of where Netanyahu is headed in the diplomatic sphere. Does he intend to be a little less of a Republican leader, the head of 51st state of the United States who often appears to be running against the incumbent American president?
Or will he act more like the prime minister of Israel, who has identified as the possibility of a new political axis with some Arab states, Saudi Arabia, for example, countries that, like Israel, see the agreement with Iran as a disaster.
If Netanyahu does indeed see such an opportunity, then Israel may be heading for a completely different track than the obvious.
The Israeli political world is having trouble understanding if the prime minister is bogged down in negotiations with potential partners, or he is deliberately dragging out the final agreements so he can change direction at the last minute.
Even Likud heavyweights Ze'ev Elkin and Yariv Levin, who are managing the coalition negotiations, know nothing about Netanyahu's true intentions.
The prime minister has been able to create an environment of impotence. He uses people as pawns rather than as allies he consults with. He really has no confidence in people, real confidantes, people he trusts and whose intentions he believes.
The widespread tendency to see a joint Likud-Zionist Union government as the most likely scenario could prove to be a mistake. Currently nothing is happening on this front. There is no secret channel; there is not even an overture. Shelly Yachimovich is convinced that what happened under Barak – when she woke one morning to discover that Labor had joined the government - will not happen.
Perhaps Yachimovich will not wake up to such a situation. Herzog is not Barak, and he would be sure to at least update the number 2 in his party. But it could well be that this is what the Israeli public will wake up to one morning.
So what are the chances of a unity government? Probably about 50-50. And if Netanyahu does pick up the phone and Herzog does answer in the affirmative, there is a chance that the vast majority of Zionist Union would be ready to join the coalition.
