Arik's Victory , Sharon's defeat

There are three keys to understanding the outcome of Monday’s stormy Likud faction meeting. First, there was the sorry sight of Prime Minister Sharon being dragged into a disengagement vote against his will and beaten mercilessly.

Then there is the dejected state of the Likud party, divided and contentious and ready to split.

Third is Sharon’s proven ability to avoid yet another hurdle on his way to passing the state budget in the Knesset.

And pass it will. Even Sharon’s opponents, such as Michael Ratzon, understand they have failed: “I refrained from voting in the faction," Ratzon told Ynet following the vote, " because practically, it's much easier to pass the budget in the Knesset after it has passed the Finance Committee," he said.

In other words, even Ratzon was forced to admit that despite Sharon’s humiliation, at the end of the day the prime minister had won the battle, and for almost no cost: the rebels abandoned their Committee seats for little more than a pie-in-the-sky promise, while Sharon goes happily home with yet another budget in his pocket.

Sharon may have lost the battle on preventing a referendum vote, but the view from the top is hardly bleak. At the end of the day, the Finance Committee will easily ratify the budget, and the referendum bill will die an early death in the legislative committee.

All this is predicated, of course, on Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. One can never know just when the good rabbi might be directed in his sleep to reverse his opposition to a national referendum.

So in the greater picture, Sharon is well ahead in the standings: barring any unforeseen crises, by the end of the week the budget will have passed, and the withdrawal referendum will have died a peaceful death. As one Sharon aide said Monday, "Tomorrow morning, in contrast with this morning, the budget will pass without it costing us a cent.”

Even within the Likud, things are brighter for Sharon than they may look at first glance. True, he has suffered repeated embarrassing setbacks, namely from ministers Netanyahu, Shalom, Livnat and Katz, who have repeatedly voted against Sharon on disengagement-related issues, and who yesterday voted in favor of the compromise bill that will bring a disengagement referendum to a Knesset vote— a plan vehemently opposed by Sharon.

But despite the agitations of this quartet, it is worth mentioning the Likud Knesset members' reaction to Sharon’s suggestion there would be no party discipline for the Knesset vote. Such a move would have surely toppled the government, and all the tough guys almost fell off their chairs. "Don't drag us to elections," they almost begged Sharon, "don't do it."

Lastly, if we had a worthy opposition in Israel, it would have torn the Likud to pieces Monday. There is no party discipline, each Knesset member does as he or she pleases. The faction chair is threatening to resign, a third of the party is threatening to vote against the faction's decision and the rest are afraid of their own shadows.

But alas, there is no opposition here, and Sharon will continue cruising, full speed ahead.