Not what we expected
It's a New Middle East, all right, but not the one Shimon Peres had in mind, writes Sever Plocker
Not many Israelis would have seen the BBC broadcast this week of a roundtable discussion of Arab intellectuals from the Qatari capital of Doha.
It's too bad. It was a picture of the New Middle East, and it's not what we thought it would be.
Since its creation in the early 1990s, the phrase "New Middle East" has gotten a bad name. It signifies all that post-Oslo Israeli arrogance, when Israelis acted like missionaries for modernizing the Arab world.
Peres plan a flop
Then, Israel came to regional economic forums armed with far-ranging plans to develop the region from Bat Yam to Baghdad, from Kiryat Shemona to Casablanca, complete with color maps of roads and train routes that would one day turn the region into one large, intertwined transportation network.
But the plans were interpreted by the Arabs as economic imperialism. The Arabs looked at the color maps and saw a program for expanding Israel's occupation.
And so the call for a New Middle East was a flop. The Arab states and the Muslim organizations withdrew into themselves, and missed out on an economic opportunity at the last minute.
The wave of democratization and globalization passed them over; their dictatorships sank further into oppression and corruption, as did the price of oil - just about the only export they've got.
Unintended effects
Both outbursts of Muslim violence at the beginning of the decade—the Aqsa Intifada and the September 11 attack—were expressions of the ongoing battle between the old and new Middle East.
But those directing the intifada, just as the heads of al-Qaeda, badly misjudged the Arab world. They failed to enlist tens—or hundreds—of millions of Muslims for the terrorist cause as they hoped.
Instead, the process they began was unexpected and quite unintended.
Far from Israeli eyes, the seeds of democracy, liberalism and globalism were planted among the Arab masses, seeds that are currently, slowly, starting to bear fruit.
About a year after the World Trade Center attack, the United Nations presented a dramatic study about the Arab world. The study, written by prominent Arab intellectuals, said the Arab world today is generations behind the rest of the world, and laid the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Arab world itself.
That report was the first in a series, the third of which was published this month. It reports on intra-Arab discussions, such as that broadcast by the BBC. Its conclusions are gaining currency amongst the Arab masses, because they come from the heart of the concerned Arab intellectual.
Trillion-dollar industry
So what has changed from 1995 to 2005? The source, for one thing. The winds of change currently blowing around the Arab world have no trace of "made in Israel," and no connection to the United States. It is a purely Arab response to the poor situation of Muslim masses, rather than Israeli do-gooders.
Economically, the oil the Arab world was selling for ten dollars a barrel in 1999 currently sells for 40 dollars. The price of production is roughly the same (about four dollars a barrel), meaning the extra profit is going straight into state coffers.
And the numbers are baffling: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the Gulf States made USD 180 billion in oil revenue last year, a number set to jump to USD 200 billion this year. Across the Muslim world, total oil revenues are approximately 1 TRILLION dollars.
And the revenue will continue into the future. Analysts predict a set price of USD 80 per barrel, a number that could change the face of the Arab world beyond recognition.
But this time the masses will not allow the money to roll into the pockets of corrupt sheikhs, violent dictators and rotten elites.
The New Middle East is closer than previously thought, but not exactly what we expected. It's not the brainchild of Shimon Peres, but rather comes from within the Arab world, resting on Arab oil wealth and on the Arab street's desire for change.
The New Middle East can be either for us or against us. It also depends on us. Primarily on us.
