Withdrawal won’t end with Gush Katif
For Sharon, the Gaza disengagement is the first course, a mere dress rehearsal, Sever Plocker says
Statesmen, just like CEO’s, rarely admit to failure when it comes to their life’s enterprise – even when they blame the failure on circumstance, chance or human nature.
Therefore, the lack of interest in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s statement regarding the failure of the Jewish settlement enterprise outside the Green Line is surprising.
During his recent trip to France, Sharon said, “If one million Jews would have settled in the territories, Israel could have conducted a different policy,” virtually admitting that after all the land confiscations in the West Bank, the construction, both the legal and illegal expansion and the populating of the 120 Jewish settlements, the settlement movement is facing a hopeless situation.
While it is true that some 25,000 Jews live outside the Green Line, 150,000 of them reside in what are known as the “large settlement blocs,” situated in close proximity to the border established after the 1967 Six-Day War. This is where Israel ends.
Minimizing the damage
Should you travel a few kilometers to the east, you will encounter the failure Sharon has been referring to in all its blatancy: Small Jewish settlements - more like villages or neighborhoods - dispersed among a sea of hostile Palestinians.
These settlements can in no way change the demographic, geographic or security-related balance.
The Palestinian state is situated just a few kilometers from the town of Kfar Saba; it was established following the first intifada.
Despite the rhetoric and budgets, from the Madrid Summit in 1991 and onwards, only one new Jewish town was established in the territories, Modiin Elite (Kiryat Sefer), which is also located near the 1967 border.
New neighborhoods were added to existing settlements, but the results remained negligible.
For example, the West Bank settlement of Itamar is home to 500 people, and only 2,500 Jews reside in Emanuel; in fact, these settlements almost constitute a statistical mistake.
But it was the non-settlers, not the settlers themselves that determined the border between Israel and the Palestinian state. Sharon is aware of this. He may be lamenting over this, or perhaps it makes him glad; a million Jews that did not settle in the territories prevented the irreversible establishment of a two-nation state.
So, what is left for Sharon to do following the collapse of the settlement enterprise, which he himself envisioned and directed? Precisely what he is doing now: Minimizing the damage, collecting the broken pieces, withdrawing and establishing new borders.
The dream is over
He is starting with the disengagement from Gaza, but this is only the first course, a dress rehearsal, if you will. I estimate that the pullout will be followed by the real deal: Major withdrawals and evacuations from the West Bank.
Like in the 1982 Lebanon War, Sharon will not stop after 40 kilometers (about 25 miles). The evacuation will not end with Gush Katif - the prime minister will attempt to transfer at least 80,000 settlers to the other side of the West Bank security fence.
Sharon is determined to be remembered as one of the great Jewish leaders, not as the prime minister who dared to actually divide the Land of Israel.
The minor disengagement from Gaza will allow Sharon to gather operational experience, reinforce economic and legal precedents, manipulate the right and confuse the left.
He will learn his lessons, fortify his government and begin what is sure to become his life’s second enterprise: The evacuation of the Jewish settlements from areas beyond the security fence.
Seeing that he is not getting any younger, Sharon will attempt to complete the historic feat in a few years time.
He has already explained to us the necessity of his plan: The Jewish nation has failed in the realization of the settlement dream. Now there is no other choice – the evacuation of 8,000 settlers from Gaza will be followed by the evacuation of 80,000 more from the West Bank.
Sharon is not the type of leader who will settle for anything less.
