Abbas shows signs of weakness

Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently facing four problems that are gradually getting worse and weakening his regime - anarchy, corruption, civil war and security chaos," former Defense Ministry territories advisor Brigadier General (res.) Shalom Harari said Monday.

"It is difficult to evaluate Abbas' moves at present. Only if they continue, are serious and if he is willing to go all the way, can the measures the PA applied Sunday can be defined sufficient," Harari said, referring to the recent escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip. 

"We have seen such moves before, including in recent days," he said.

It is clear that a dispute between the PA and terror groups still has a long way to go. 

Following the blast during a Hamas parade last week, the PA announced a ban on publicly carrying weapons. However it is doubtful whether this instruction will be respected.

The members of the terror groups have themselves declared in recent days that they intend to cease bearing arms once the parades are completed - it appears the current situation makes it difficult for them to resist.

PA's inadequacy quickly revealed

One way or another, the incident Sunday night in which an explosive device was thrown at PA police Chief Ala Husni's car marked the beginning for what may transpire Monday.

It also illustrated that the PA's order will not be easily enforced, at least not without the implementation of severe measures.

The PA's inadequacy was quickly revealed in the initial days following Israel's withdrawal from Gaza.

While masses stormed over the Philadelphi route into Egypt, Hamas members blew up parts of the fence in a bid to enable people to cross easily. 

The PA could say nothing in its own defense.

And so, all contacts the PA held in recent weeks, including with the Egyptians, the Americans and Israel, focused on the need to put an end to the gunmen's rallies.

"If this situation continues - you will go down," the PA was warned at the time.

PA shows weakness in other arenas

However, weakness in the PA was not only visible in regards to collecting weapons from the terror organizations.

Several weeks ago Palestinian doctors staged a large strike in Gaza protesting several incidences where PA security forces and armed Hamas members threatened Gaza and West Bank doctors stop surgery and treat fellow injured group members.

Doctors pleaded with the gunmen allow them to finish treating their patients lying on the operating table; however they were threatened at gunpoint and forced to abide by their orders.

Judges at local Palestinian courts are also fearful of armed presence.

According to Harari, one of the first moves Abbas made when taking over PA leadership was to convene the Security Council and issue a decree forbidding anyone to publicly carry a weapon except for PA officials.

"Within a short while this turned into a joke," he said. "You need to patiently wait before deciding whether a move is serious."

"Several months ago the PA demolished four illegal structures along the Gaza seashore. Everyone thought it was the beginning of law enforcement, however they never destroyed anymore," he said. "We will only be able to know whether it is a serious move, should it continue for a number of weeks." 

'Abbas lacks Arafat's charisma'

Turning his attention the balance of powers in the Strip, Harari said that the PA, with an estimated 20,000 weapons, faces the terror factions which together hold about 8,000 weapons.

"This is not a very big difference, especially not with Hamas members being much bolder and more committed than the PA's officers. This state of affairs has created a Hamas state within the Palestinian Authority, and former PA Chairman, the late Yasser Arafat is one of the main people to blame for this," Harari said.

"Arafat sponsored the purchase of some of these weapons, which now constitute a threat to Abbas' fragile regime."

One of Abbas' major problems, Harari said, is his inability to get his generals to obey him. This is because Abbas lacks Arafat's charisma, and because he is perceived as a political bureaucrat, not a military leader, a man of politics and cocktails.

"And so, even with 20,000 guns, the PA's strength is compromised by internal and political rifts," Harari concluded.

Internal conflicts

The rifts and conflicts are present everywhere, and are demonstrated in Abbas' rivalry with his prime minister, Ahmed Qureia, and in the dispute between National Security Advisor Jibril Rajoub and Civilian Affairs Minister Mohammed Dahlan.

"Beyond all of these problems, Abbas needs to confront the problem of elections in the Strip. He must avoid harsh moves that may boost Hamas' strength," Harari said. "The elections for the regional councils during last weekend revealed that despite Fatah's manipulation of the results, Hamas gained quite a significant success. This is quite a bleak situation."

So what can Abbas do? From his weak, he tried negotiating with the factions - at least to conceal their weapons. Sources familiar with the incident say Abbas is simply unable to place pressure on the armed groups.

Abbas has therefore created his own "stage scheme," according to which the PA will settle for a concealment of arms by Hamas and other factions until general elections in January.

Once Hamas is integrated into the Authority following the elections, the PA will endeavor to enforce its influence, legalize the weapons and perhaps even collect them.

In the meantime, sources say a civil war between the PA and Hamas is a red line that neither of the sides is willing to cross. Therefore it is unlikely that a wide confrontation will erupt prior to elections.