Balance of terror in Gaza?
In interview with Ynet, outgoing IDF Central Command Head Dan Harel sums up his term, says the key to maintaining quiet in Gaza Strip may be the creation of balance of terror similar to one on northern border
Only when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called him Thursday morning to thank him for more than two years on the job, did Central Command Head Dan Harel realize his term is indeed drawing to an end.
It has been almost two months since IDF troops left the Gaza Strip, the Qassam rocket threat is still there, but Harel says he feels the pullout changed things for better in terms of security, at least for the time being.
“The question of whether the disengagement succeeded or not hinges on the objectives whoever thought up the idea hoped to achieve,” he told Ynet, shortly before moving ahead to his next post, the IDF attache in Washington.
“If the objective was more security, than technically speaking, the answer is positive: There are far fewer attacks than there used to be,” he says. “I’m not sure the disengagement stemmed from security considerations, although I assume they were part of the considerations that brought the move.”
However, Harel says the long-term success of the pullout does not hinge only on security benefits.
“This (pullout) has immense implications in the diplomatic, geopolitical, and strategic aspects…in my view, we’re still too close to the move to judge it fully.”
Harel is departing at the time of renewed security tensions, for the second time since the pullout ended.
“Operation ‘First Rain’ a month ago achieved the objectives and created deterrence,” he says. “We made it clear to everyone that there’s a new situation here, that we don’t intend to engage in a specific clash with this or that terrorist or cell.”
“This is not going to be, in my view, a series of operations and responses, but rather, an attempt to create ‘rules of the game’ based on deterrence. It has to come together with Palestinian desire to avoid firing. Unfortunately, the Palestinian Authority is simply not doing its job,” he says.
Moreover, despite the IDF’s departure from Gaza, Harel refuses to discount the possibility of a ground operation in the Strip.
“If the situation continues, it would be more complex, and perhaps take more time, but it’s certainly possible we’d go back to ground operations in the Strip,” he says, and refers to international law.
“It’s a situation of firing from a nearby independent entity…the IDF is prepared for this possibility, there are operational plans approved at all levels. It’s one of the optional tools of creating deterrence.”
'Big mess' in Gaza
Harel admits that major chaos accompanied the evacuation of the Philadelphi route in Gaza.
“There was a big mess there. Tens of thousands, maybe even a hundred thousand Palestinians went to Egypt, mostly for legitimate reasons. There was a passage of terrorists and weapons from both sides of the border. The measures adopted by the Egyptians along the borer are not good enough and do not amount to much in comparison
Has Israel suffered irreversible security damage? “A lot of weapons have been smuggled in, but as far as we know, no weapons that change the balance of power were transferred. I’m not ruling out the possibility that it can happen.
However, Harel says that in order to prevent violence, a “balance of terror” may be established in Gaza, similarly to the situation that has prevailed on the northern border.
“Our answer must not be in response to one specific weapon or other, but in the creation of a much broader equation, that may lead to the creation of military potential there. However, like in the northern border, it will never be manifested through long period (of fighting,) thanks to deterrence. Just like on the northern border with Lebanon, where a large reservoir of arms also exists.
Meanwhile, Harel also says that at one point or another, Qassam rockets will be directed at the southern city of Ashkelon.
“At some point, Qassam rockets will reach Ashkelon, which is already in range,” said Harel. From his perspective, the question of how to deal with the possibility of Ashkelon being struck by rockets is not answered by rocket ranges, but rather, with deterrence.
Danger in the south
Harel is also worried about what is happening south of Gaza, and does not only dish out praise for Egypt.
“The border with Egypt is another weak spot,” he says. “It’s a huge border, 250 kilometers (about 150 miles) long, and criminal activity is taking place along it and must be curbed. The danger is that the criminal platform can also be used to send terrorists to Israel. There were already some attempts that we stopped. I hope we can keep this balance, but doubt it and I expect the Egyptians to do much more.”
Harel has had to deal with issues beyond terror organizations and Qassam attacks. Many months before the disengagement, he and his officers were engaged in prolonged dialogue with the residents of Gush Katif. Harel and his staff have, in effect, become the government’s spokesmen, and attempted to solve problems on the ground, and to calm the atmosphere.
Harel was subjected to repeated verbal abuse, shouts, and he has come close to being physically attacked. He now admits that the operations IDF commanders were tasked with deviated from the classic definition of their duties.
“I don’t think there has been a change of trend here, but in terms of the question, did the army do things that were not purely military - the answer is yes,” he said.
