Labor party race tightens

Likelihood of Labor split grows, as latest poll shows Amir Peretz closing gap on Shimon Peres, as long as voter turnout remains low; Peres associates feeling the heat, acting to boost turnout rate

Attila Somfalvi|Last update: 11.04.05 , 13:50

Time for a Labor party split? The race for the Labor party’s leadership has tightened, with results hinging mostly on the voter turnout rate, a poll commissioned by Israel’s leading newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth shows.

The race between the two front-runners, Shimon Peres and Amir Peretz, will be decided on Wednesday, November 9, after Labor’s appeals institute dismissed the latest in a series of legal challenges and ruled the primaries will be held as scheduled.

The latest survey results are putting the pressure on Peres, with his associates expressing growing doubts about his victory, which only recently seemed largely assured. Some of that concern stems from estimates that Peretz’ campaign is well organized and many of his supporters are expected to hit polling stations on Wednesday.

Polls published in the media in recent days apparently hurt Peres, with many of the senior figures close to him increasingly concerned Peretz may emerge victorious. As a result, sources in Labor have been saying that should Peretz indeed be elected to lead the party, it would not remain united and will split.

Friday’s poll showed that in the case of a 60 percent voter turnout rate, Peres will receive 38 percent of the votes, with Peretz close behind at 34 percent. In the previous survey, the gap between the two stood at 17 percent.

Will weather play a part?

If the voter turnout rate is 70 percent, Peres’ situation improves, with 40 percent of voters supporting him as opposed to 31 backing Peretz. If neither Peres nor Peretz obtain 40 percent of the vote, a second round will be held where a Peres victory seems assured, by a 54 to 41 percent margin.

Meanwhile, Peres associates are attempting to boost the turnout rate by phoning party members and encouraging them to vote. The Peres campaign also changed its tactic recently, focusing on Peretz’ growing chances of pulling off an upset and winning the primaries, in the hope such scenario would scare party members into hitting the polls.

Peretz, who has not lost hope in the face of earlier unfavorable polls, told Ynet this week about a personal loan he took out to the tune of NIS 300,000 (about USD 70,000) in order to fund his campaign.

Peretz, who counts on historically low voter turnout rates, realizes he must invest all his efforts into winning in the first round, as his chances to surprise Peres in a second round are slim.

Peres, meanwhile, is concerned that weather conditions may play a part in the vote and could prompt people to stay at home.