Are current polls reliable?
Does empathy for PM affect polls?
Expert: Once Israelis worry about Sharon the person, not leader, support for Kadima will drop
Everyone who lives in this country senses the concerns and empathy Israelis feel for ailing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The big question: To what extent does this empathy affect current poll results, and what role will it play when the moment of truth comes and Israelis hit the polls?
The answer, at this time, remains unclear.
Poll results released Friday gave an Ehud Olmert-led Kadima 39 Knesset seats, an identical figure to what a Sharon-led party received a week before. But is the concern for Sharon's health causing people to say they will vote for Kadima? Would the support for the new centrist party drop once the prime minister no longer commands the headlines?
Leading pollster Mina Tzemach told Ynet several days must pass before Israel's new political map can be understood. The emotional state of Israelis these days does not necessarily reflect the situation come election time, she said.
"It's obvious that the latest poll in Yedioth Ahronoth reflected the same day's mood," she said. "We cannot know how much of this stems from feelings and how much stems from decisions that have nothing to do with concern for the prime minister. We cannot know and we must wait. Time will tell."
'Empathy will turn to compassion'
However, political sociologist Yagil Levy of Ben Gurion University says he believes Kadima will start dropping in polls once Israelis start worrying for Sharon the person, rather than Sharon the leader.
"Whether Sharon departs from this world or merely leaves politics, the empathy will turn into compassion," he says. "In the coming days the attorney general is expected to announce the prime minister is permanently unable to serve as prime minister. That's the point where Kadima will be approached just like other centrist parties. This means it will not receive 40 mandates."
Levy estimated Kadima will end up winning 15-30 Knesset seats.
However, Levy says that Kadima still has several advantages compared to other parties.
"Kadima is not portrayed as a socioeconomic leftist party, like (Labor party leader Amir) Peretz, and not like a socioeconomic rightist party, like (Likud leader Benjamin) Netanyahu. As such, it has a large niche," Levy said.
