Ynet's political analyst Attila Somfalvi
Photo: Gabi Menashe
Attila answers readers' questions
Ynet's political analyst responds to questions about Israel's political system in wake of Sharon's stroke
In the wake of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's massive stroke and the political uncertainty that followed, we invited readers to submit questions to Ynet's political analyst Attila Somfalvi. Below are his answers:
JBN, Port Townsend: If Sharon remains alive, even incapacitated, the voters will choose Kadima out of deference to him. Do you agree?
A: It looks as if the voters still stick with Kadima for the time being. Sharon has been hospitalized for almost two weeks now, but polls show Israelis are still loyal to the new party, and intend to vote for it.
There is no doubt that Sharon's presence in our world helps Kadima. Many Israelis feel sorrow because of Sharon and sympathize with the new political home he started to build. Now that Sharon is out of the game, the public craves for stability, and Kadima is doing a good job by not "rocking the boat."
Will it last? Hard to tell. It all depends on the number of mistakes Kadima will make, as well as on terror attacks and Qassam rockets.
After Nasser's death, a relatively unknown Sadat took the helm, and surprised many who did not give him enough credit. Do you think Olmert can do the same?
A: Ehud Olmert is a very experienced politician who has been through many political tests over the years. At the same time, it is a well known fact that being prime minister in Israel is a tough job. In the next two months, Olmert will face the scrutinizing eyes of the public and will have to deal with the day-to-day problems of a state that is under attack almost every day.
Will he do the job? Too soon to say. For now, it looks like Israelis are giving him credit, but I cannot be sure this honeymoon-like situation will continue until the elections.
Too many negative feelings against Netanyahu, although he is a capable and experienced man. How can he reinvent himself in the next three months- Is it possible?
A: Netanyahu is an expert in reinventing himself. He has done it a few times in the past, and it looks like he is an expert in self-rehabilitation.
However, the past few years were not very good for the Likud's leader, partly because his self-destructive makeup. Netanyahu could have been the next prime minister - had he waited. But something pushed him into the abyss, pushed him from one mistake to another. The idea of becoming prime minister sooner than expected took him out of focus.
Also, Netanyahu drags behind him the negative sentiments of many Israelis over his economic plan, which left many in poverty and pushed many more in that direction.
Therefore, I don't think Netanyahu will reinvent himself in a way that will bring him back to the Prime Minister's Office. In spite of that, he can harm Kadima by bringing back those center-right voters who left the Likud because of Sharon.
As a matter of fact, Netanyahu "depends" on the Qassam rockets and the security situation in the South and in the territories. As long as terror is down, Olmert is safe. But if things go from bad to worse, like in the 1996 elections, Netanyahu can benefit.
Josh: How do you explain the fact that Likud has not gained any strength despite Sharon's departure from the political scene?
A: As I wrote before, it is too early to conclude. For now, it seems like the Likud is going in one direction only: Down. Furthermore, you must remember that Sharon is still here. His presence among Israelis persists, either because of the fresh memory or because of good public relations experts. I advise us all not to be naive: Kadima's people will use everything they have at their disposal to maintain the favorable results in the polls.
Ahmed, Beirut: Will Ehud Olmert be able to fill the political vacuum caused by Sharon's incapacitation?
A: For now, it seems like Olmert has been sitting on the rime minister's chair for years. He does nothing special, so in the eyes of the public he appears to be a serious guy with lots of respect for the ailing leader, Sharon. His test will be the next two months, before the elections. Shimon Peres once told me that elections are a contest of mistakes: Who will make more of them.
Regarding the vacuum, I believe that in a democratic political system there is no such thing as a vacuum. In fact, even after President Kennedy was shot, and even after Prime Minister Rabin was killed – the two democratic societies moved forward. There is no time for vacuums in democracies.
Rachel, Israel: Do you think Shimon Peres will return to Labor now that it seems Sharon's political days are over?
A: NO. This issue is over and done with. Mr. Peres is in Kadima to stay. There is no way back to the Labor party for Shimon Peres. As a matter of fact, there never was one.
Lisa, Israel: Labor and Likud have partnered up together in coalition in recent years but with Netanyahu and Peretz leading them is it at all possible they will again cooperate?
A: At this time this is not a question that has to be discussed at all. Likud has around 12 seats in the polls, and the Labor hardly wins 20 in the optimistic ones. Kadima, for that matter, has 40-42 seats. So do you see a Likud-Labor coalition cooking? I don't see it.
Regardless of who leads Israel now, do you believe that further concessions to the Palestinians and more withdrawals are inevitable?
A: If there is something that I believe will surely happen, either in the near future or later – it is the continuation of the withdrawals. Gaza was only the start of a process most Israelis understand and support: The process of leaving most of the occupied territories.
Todd, United States: Do you think Sharon's plan to strike Iran will still be carried out. If so what does that mean for Israel and the Middle East?
A: I have no idea if Israel or Sharon have or had such a plan. Obviously there must be secret plans how to do it in case of emergency, but at this point I don't think Israel has a concrete plan to strike Iran in the near future.
For now, the ball is in the international community's court, and that is where the game has to be played.
Frank, Israel: From the Palestinian point of view, how strong is the link between the Palestinian legislative election and the prospect of Israeli parliamentary election? In other word, is there any connection between the Palestinian rebuilding of an internal political structure and Israel?
A: I am neither an expert in Palestinian politics, nor in diplomatic affairs, but from the political point of view, there is always an impact of things happening there on the political reality here. And vice versa.
The political scenes are connected, and when Hamas gains strength there, it influences the politics here, in Israel. I want to remind you of the 1996 elections in Israel, where Shimon Peres lost because of a terror wave that swept through the streets of Israel.
After the elections, when the prime minister was Mr. Netanyahu, things changed in the relations between Israel and the Palestinians, and it had an influence on the Palestinian street, and 3 years later on the results of the Israeli elections.
