Bin Laden unlikely to carry out attack on EU, say analysts

Will Osama bin Laden target Europe next? A new audio tape of the al-Qaeda leader surfaced Wednesday and in it, he threatened the European Union with "grave punishment" over the republishing of the Prophet Muhammad cartoons.

The message was released on the fifth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq and the threats voiced in it targeted EU leaders and Pope Benedict XVI. The question remaining now is how solid are they.

Dr. Eli Carmon, a senior analyst in the International Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT) at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya (IDC) said Thursday that it is unlikely that bin Laden has anything planed for the foreseeable future.

The so-called "grave punishment", said Carmon, is nothing more than an idle threat: "This kind of threat carries political, propaganda value, aimed to show that al-Qaeda is the keeper of the values of Islam.

"It is also most likely that he made the threat as a show of force, to remind everyone that he's still the one making policy."

Nothing but propaganda

Carmon believes that bin Laden is simply trying to ride the current Islamic trend of onslaught against Christianity and the West.

Al-Qaeda was able to carry out attacks in the UK and Spain after 9/11, he added, but one must remember that despite the numerous threats made by bin Laden, most of al-Qaeda's plans for attacks have either been foiled or fell through on their own.

Yael Shahar, a senior researcher at the ITC agrees, saying a reoccurrence of the 9/11 attacks is highly unlikely. Al-Qaeda, she explained, no longer operates in an orderly fashion, as it did in the past; and today the organization is mostly made up of small groups of local terror cells.

Sending a spilt message. The new tape (Photo: AP)

Bin Laded, she added, is trying to convey a spilt message: "It really is first and foremost psychological warfare against the EU, something like 'you've published these cartoons so now I'm after you'.

"Secondly, he is trying to send a message to his supporters, to reassure them that al-Qaeda is strong – ' we're here, we're making threats, we can do it.' This kind of message helps him recruit new members to the cause."

The third underlined message, added Shahar, is aimed at sporadic terror cells, which support al-Qaeda passively, effectively calling on them to take action.

Vatican rejects 'crusade' charges

The Vatican on Thursday rejected bin Laden's fresh accusations. "These accusations are totally unfounded," the chief Vatican spokesman Rev. Federico Lombardi told Reuters.

Lombardi said bin Laden's accusations were not surprising. "It is natural to think that he would lump the Vatican and the pope together with all his perceived enemies. But this is not correct," he said.

He recalled that the pope himself had been quick to condemn the Danish cartoons and had launched a wider criticism of depictions of religious figures that offend members of different faiths.

He also pointed out that Pope Benedict, who himself deeply offended many Muslims with a 2006 speech depicting Islam as a violent faith, recently set up a permanent official dialogue with Muslim leaders.

Reuters contributed to this report