Forecast for the next decade

Ron Ben-Yishai foresees nuclear Iran, northern war, but also a stronger, more advanced IDF

Ron Ben-Yishai|Published: 05.08.08 , 11:14

First, a personal comment: Everyone knows that since the destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem, prophecy is given to fools, and that 10 years in the Middle East are more or less equal to eternity. Yet when I was asked to write my own forecast for Israel’s 60th Independence Day I couldn’t fight the temptation. Yet as opposed to a prophecy, an assessment for the next decade is a challenge that forces one to ask: Does the current security and diplomatic activity have a chance to improve our situation in the future, and is there a chance that in 10 years we will see peace prevail? Therefore, despite the risk that I will be proven wrong, I will attempt to answer.

My forecast is based on the assumption that current trends in the world and in the Middle East will continue in the next decade and may even intensify. We should also recall that 10 years are, more or less, the time required to develop new weapon systems. The Israeli experience also proves that every 10 years on average we face war or a major military campaign. Therefore, below I detail the main developments that in my estimate will take place within the next decade:

Radical militant Islam will attempt to take over Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, and Iraq – but it will start the process of fading away. We are not only talking about global Jihad, but also local Jihad movements. The main reason for this is their failure to produce, over time, new operational and political success stories. The West, Russia, and China, as well as the secular Muslim regimes, will cooperate and learn to “contain” the radical Islamic groups. Meanwhile, the masses will be disappointed by the extremist groups’ inability to provide their basic needs and improve their quality of life.

The United States will continue to maintain its military and civilian presence in Iraq and operate militarily against Iranian targets that assist Iraqi terror. NATO forces will continue to operate alongside American units and civilian aid groups in Afghanistan. In both regions, the extent of Western forces and aid will be smaller compared to the current situation.

Rising food prices and natural disasters, which will become more frequent because of global warming, will increase the dependence of Muslim and Arab states on wealthy Western countries that boast highly developed agriculture and the ability to offer aid of all kinds in order to cope with natural disasters. This is also true with regards to the Muslim oil exporters, which will have to spend more money on food, desalination, and basic necessities – and less money on arms.

Iran will acquire military nuclear capabilities and will also possess various strategic launching means. The international community and Israel will not be able to prevent it. As a result, more Mideastern countries will launch their own nuclear activity.

Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, and Egypt will accumulate thousands of missiles and rockets that will be accurate, long-ranged, and fitted with larger warheads than in the past. In addition, they will possess modern anti-tank rockets and will significantly improve, through Russian equipment and independent development, their aerial defense systems. All of the above will boost their ability to sow destruction in Israel’s territory, and make it more difficult for our ground forces and Air Force to operate in their territory.

In the next 10 years, we will see several more wide-scale clashes between Israel and the Palestinians and possibly with Syria and Hizbullah as well. After these clashes and as a result of them, we will secure partial diplomatic agreements with the Palestinians, as well as with Syria and Lebanon, with active international backing and participation. But those will still not be full peace treaties.

The administrations of the next two American presidents will continue to support Israel diplomatically and militarily, and will attempt to advance peace agreements, more or less in line with the current format.

In light of the above, I estimate that Israeli governments will continue to adhere to Ben-Gurion’s security doctrine, that is: Avoid war as much as possible via deterrence and diplomatic maneuvers; build and maintain intelligence deterrence power that would enable us to thwart war and prepare for it in advance; and if war is forces upon us, or if Israel initiates war in order to thwart a clear and tangible threat to destroy us – the IDF will win it by defeating the enemy in its own territory; Israel will build its defense force while utilizing its human and technological advantage and with American assistance; on the diplomatic front, Israel will work to advance peace treaties in stages, in a way that preserves Washington’s support and the international legitimacy for our existence and for our defense efforts.

The implementation of the above principles will likely lead to the maturation of several processes in the next decade:

A multilayered system for intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, and rockets of all types and sizes will be deployed in Israel (this system will also include laser-based systems.) The home front will undergo an intensive process of fortification and preparation for non-conventional attacks. In Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beer Sheba, and Dimona we will be in the process of constructing huge public bomb shelters (some of them will have dual purposes such as a subway for example.) The public will undergo drills that will simulate evacuations and long-term stay in bomb shelters.

Israel will possess a long strategic arm that would be able to provide an offensive response not only to the Iranian nuclear threat but also to conventional and non-conventional threats posed by other countries in the region. This strategic arm, which will enjoy high survivability, will have four capabilities: Long-distance warning premised on independent intelligence capabilities as well as the global American alert system; the ability to intercept and destroy various types of missiles and rockets on enemy territory or in early stages of launching, via unmanned aircraft; the ability to deliver a long-range “preventative strike” or “advanced strike” on enemy territory; the ability to deliver both a short-range and long-range “second strike” in case Israel is attacked. These strategic arm capabilities, most of which have been published in the foreign media, will be significantly upgraded when Israel acquires from the US one or two squadrons of stealth-type JSF F-35 fighter jets and when the Navy receives the two new submarines being built for it in Germany.

The IDF’s ground forces will maintain their current format and scope, with the possible addition of one or two divisions. However, they will be boosted by highly advanced weapons and protective means, which will provide the forces with currently non-existent maneuvering and survivability capabilities in a battlefield replete with anti-tank weapons. The emphasis will be placed on quick movements that would enjoy uninterrupted and tight support and cover from the air in terms of firepower, intelligence, and logistics. The combat divisions will also possess their own heavy and accurate weapons as well as independent logistic abilities.

The Navy will possess five Dolphin submarines and possibly another missile frigate, which will be part of its strategic arm. On the other hand, the protection of our shores against terror infiltration and the prevention of arms smuggling to Gaza will be increasingly based on unmanned vessels to be operated in every sector by mother ships or from the shore.

The overall trend in the IDF would be to boost to the maximum the utilization of advanced military technologies and unmanned platforms across the military. In 10 years, a significant part of our combat soldiers – in the sea, air, and land – will apparently be the operators of unmanned systems.

As to our northern front, and I hope I am proven wrong here, we will likely see another war.