Beware the North Koreans
Latest North Korean missile test cause for concern for Israel as well
The North Koreans did not lie. All the data collected thus far shows that the missile they launched
Sunday was indeed designated for a seemingly legitimate aim – bringing a small satellite into orbit. So why did the launching of the missile arouse such fury in South Korea, Japan and the United States, while also causing significant worries in China and Russia? The answer has to do with the technical details, says former Air Force Chief and Defense Ministry Director General David Ivry. “A state that can successfully launch a 100-kilo satellite to an altitude of 400 kilometers in space is also capable of launching, using the same missile, a nuclear warhead weighing half a ton to a range of 2,500 to 3,500 kilometers,” he said.
North Korea already possesses several nuclear bombs and missiles that can hit any point in South Korea as well as extensive areas in western Japan. If the latest test succeeded, North Korea would be able to hit, using a missile fitted with a nuclear warhead, all of Japan’s territory, southern China, and even Alaska. American intelligence officials say that North Korea has not yet been able to cut the size of its nuclear bombs in a manner that would enable it to fit them on a ballistic missile, yet this is only a matter of time. The moment North Korea would possess an intercontinental ballistic missile it will develop the nuclear warhead for it sooner or later.
International Arena
Dana Zimmerman
Prof. Eytan Gilboa says US president faces first test of leadership as world waits for Washington's reaction to N. Korea's brazen missile launch. 'If he fails to act now, he can forget about acting against Iran,' he says
These facts should worry us too. While Iran does not yet possess nuclear weapons like North Korea does, it is close to acquiring them and it has proven long-range missile capabilities. Last year, Iran successfully launched a small satellite into space. The missile used in the launching points to ballistic capabilities to hit ranges of roughly 2,000 kilometers. However, even though Iran seemingly trails behind North Korea, in the long term it is more dangerous. It has oil to fund its religious expansion aspirations and the development of missiles and nuclear weapons, and it is also more immune to international sanctions.
North Korea, on the other hand, lacks resources and its population is hungry; therefore, it is easier to engage in dialogue with it and even “buy” a compromise via massive economic aid. The trouble is that North Korea’s empty coffers and failed economy also work in the opposite direction to what the West and Israel desire: North Korea assists Iran and Syria in exchange for a hefty payment in developing nuclear weapons and missiles. In the past, it helped Pakistan as well. According to foreign intelligence sources, Iranian scientists were present at North Korea’s latest launch, as well as in the nuclear experiment undertaken by the North Koreans about a year and a half ago. Therefore, any kind of knowledge and possibly any weapons system developed by North Korea will eventually be sold to these states, and possibly to other Muslim states that would join the radical Islamic camp.
How will US respond?
Yet the major threat to East Asian stability, and indirectly to us too, does not stem from North Korea’s technical launching ability or even from the fact it possesses nuclear weapons, but rather, from the character of the North Korean regime. The North Korean leadership has proven time and again that it is reckless, cruel, and unpredictable. In other words, we are dealing with a “crazy country” that does not take the welfare and safety of its own citizens into consideration and is willing to expose them to the danger of hunger and a conventional or nuclear war, as long as it can sow fear on its neighbors and boost the prestige of its leaders. The connection between such regime to launching abilities and military nuclear capabilities constitutes a substantive threat not only to regional peace, but also to world peace.
This is also the strategic meeting place between the Iranian nuclear threat against us, against Mideastern countries, and against Europe to the North Korean threat against Asian countries and the western US. In both cases we are dealing with a connection between fanatic, irresponsible and unpredictable regimes and weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, the Ayatollah regime in Iran is still much more level-headed, responsible, democratic and transparent than the North Korean regime, yet this may change in the future as result of changes at the top and as result of intoxication with power. A fanatic religious regime that aspires for regional hegemony and a status of a global military power is no less dangerous than the mad Stalinist dictatorship in North Korea.
The regime in Tehran may be even more dangerous. Experience shows that North Korea develops nuclear weapons and ballistic capacities as a means for economic extortion and as a means for guaranteeing the regime’s survivability. Through this threat, it hopes to boost the quantities of food, fuel, and consumer products it receives from its wealthy neighbors Japan and South Korea. To the same end, it also challenges the US, China, and Russia. This is the only way Kim Jong-il and his leadership partners would be able to keep providing food to their citizens and take a central place in the international area, without ultimately admitting the failure of the Marxist-Leninist experiment and losing their grip on power.
Iran too faces economic woes, which are made worse by the sanctions. However, the Ayatollah’s dependency on direct outside aid is much smaller, and the oil it possesses along with the ability to torch the oil wells in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait serve as an effective counter pressure lever vis-à-vis the one used by the West. For this reason, it is important to see how the international community responds to North Korea’s provocation. It is no coincidence that American experts say that this is the first serious challenge on the foreign relations and national security front faced by the Obama regime. The manner in which the US and the UN Security Council respond will show us what the world and what we can expect as the confrontation vis-à-vis Iran continues.
