The North Korean test
North Korea’s moves present grave international challenge for Obama
Part 1
The international crisis created in the wake of North Korea’s nuclear test is graver and more dangerous that it appeared to be initially. There is no indication that the North Korean leadership is impressed by the world’s harsh reactions or by the possibility that the United Nations Security Council would impose severe sanctions on Pyongyang because it violated its pledges.
At this time, there are also no indications that North Korea is willing to grant the US, Russia, the UN and its concerned neighbors an honorable path out of the crisis, or a possibility of ending it with a compromise.
Repercussions
S. Korean, US militaries raise alert level for peninsula after reclusive communist state warns it is ready to attack. UN Security Council powers agree in principle that North must face sanctions for carrying out nuclear test earlier this week
As proof of its determination, North Korea is undertaking a series of provocations. It resumed work in the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon and tested five missiles of all types. We are indeed talking about relatively short-range missiles, some of which are defensive, but ballistic missiles that can easily hit Seoul were also launched. This is a clear hint that Pyongyang is preparing for confrontation.
And if that’s not enough, a military spokesman in Pyongyang issued a statement this week demanding ownership of five islands located near the maritime border between North and South Korea (a border which Pyongyang does not recognize.) The army spokesman also threatened to hit South Korean and American vessels that sail in the area.
Empty toolbox
North Korea’s moves present the Obama administration’s first serious and grave international challenge. Should the US and the UN fail to handle the crisis in a firm and decisive manner, the international regime aimed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons may collapse like a house of cards; the dialogue between Washington and Tehran will be doomed for failure even before it has started, and East Asia will be destabilized. This week already, the Japanese parliament started discussing the possibly of amending the country’s pacifist constitution in a manner that would allow for a “pre-emptive strike” on North Korea’s nuclear facilities (sounds familiar.)
The trouble is that the American and international “toolbox” is almost empty. The possibility of resorting to military action or moves that may prompt a flare-up are not even being considered by Washington. The main reason is that according to all estimates, there is no immediate danger at this time of North Korea making use of the six nuclear bombs it is assumed to possess. These estimates also stem from the fact that North Korea has not yet been able to adapt these bombs to be used as warheads. In addition, about 40,000 American troops are deployed in South Korea, and a military confrontation jeopardizes them too.
On top of all of this, we should note that America is already militarily entangled in Iraq and Afghanistan (and also in Pakistan). Therefore, all that is left are economic and diplomatic sanctions.
Part 2 of Ron Ben-Yishai’s analysis to be published Thursday evening
