The Sinai threat guide
More than 20 terror cells operate in Sinai, including ones related to al-Qaeda
The grave travel warning issued by the Counter-Terrorism Bureau Tuesday evening indicates that Israel acquired concrete and credible information that points to immediate danger. One need not be an intelligence expert in order to understand that the information points to the intention of a terror cell to carry out an abduction or lethal terror attack in Sinai within hours or at most within a few days, with the target being Israeli travelers.
It’s also not difficult to guess who may be behind the plot. More than 20 terror cells operate in Sinai, many of them linked to Global Jihad and al-Qaeda, and others that are more local in nature and engage in smuggling. The main objective of all these groups is to render Egyptian authorities helpless and cause grave economic damages to Egypt, mostly on the tourism front.
Hence, these cells vigorously attempt to carry out mass attacks that target Western tourists, not necessarily from Israel. The smuggling groups, which mostly comprise Bedouin residents of Sinai, regularly clash with Egyptian security forces who attempt to stop them from transferring arms to the Gaza Strip as well as drugs and migrants to Israel.
Hamas wants another Shalit
The acts of these smugglers are complemented by a powerful and fundamental interest on the part of Hezbollah and Hamas to abduct Israelis. Hezbollah has been investing efforts for more than two years now to regain its honor and avenge the killing of senior group figure Imad Mugniyah through a grandiose terror attack. Hamas, on the other hand, is despaired by the failure of its efforts to force Israel to secure Gilad Shalit’s release on Hamas’ terms. Hence, the group views the option of holding another Israeli as an opportunity to boost its bargaining chip package, while also avenging the killing of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, which it attributes to Israel.
The Sinai Peninsula, being a preferred vacation spot for Israelis, constitutes an ideal theater for both Hezbollah and Hamas to carry out their plans. Egyptian security measures at vacation sites and on the beaches have indeed been boosted and upgraded in recent years, yet the fact that the quality of these forces is still rather mediocre turned the tens of thousands of Israelis who visited the area only recently into an easy target for terror elements.
Moreover, quite a few members of the Bedouin community are willing to cooperate with terror cells in exchange for some money in matters pertaining to preparing for terror attacks as well as hiding the abductees. The mountainous area in Sinai provides these elements with a wide variety of hiding spots; the access to them via the tunnels of the Philadelphi Route on the Gaza border would be quick and effective. From that very same area, along the Mediterranean beaches in northern Sinai, it would be easy for a vessel to dock and transfer the abductors and their victims directly to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Far from home
Another reason why Sinai has turned into a preferable site for a terror attack is Hezbollah’s and Hamas’ desire to carry out their revenge attacks without Israel’s response hurting the population under these groups’ control. Hezbollah does not wish to see Lebanon’s citizens accusing it of igniting a fire that will again cause great destruction in the country, while Hamas has no interest whatsoever in another episode of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip.
Senior members in both groups estimate that Israel will have trouble justifying on the international stage a major military operation in Lebanon or Gaza in response to an abduction or attack on Egyptian soil, far away from their borders. Both groups managed to build a developed terror infrastructure across Sinai, which as noted takes advantage of the local Bedouin expertise in smuggling.
We can assume that the latest warning, which managed to ruin the cheap vacation planned by quite a few Israelis, has to do with Hezbollah. The reason for this is that group leader Hassan Nasrallah has had trouble lately hiding his great despair over the fact that his group has been unable to avenge Mugniyah’s death, while Hamas’ leadership had been emphasizing in recent days its desire to avoid a clash with Israel.
One way or another, we can assume that the decision to issue the Counter-Terrorism Bureau’s warning was taken following hesitations and many brainstorming sessions within the defense establishment and was premised on credible information. For the time being, Israeli vacationers in Sinai would do well to heed the warnings, pack their bags, and return home at once.
