US must prove it is irreplaceable as peace mediator
Analysis: Agreement between Israel and Palestinians will only be reached with deep American involvement, as long as US starts acting like a world power again.
Despite the headlines Kerry continues to issue, in the coming days the American administration will likely begin to analyze the failure of his efforts to reach a permanent agreement at the end of the nine-month negotiations, which officially conclude Wednesday. And not just in America: The reasons for the complete failure of the diplomatic initiative he led are already being pointed out in Israel too.
So what happened in the past nine months? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas didn't even meet once. According to their associates, the reason is clear: The fear that a meeting would lead to a halt in the talks.
Aides to Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, who is in charge of the negotiations, mention two interesting phenomena which took place. The first: Netanyahu made serious progress towards the outline the Americans had discussed. The second: Housing Minister Uri Ariel's frequent announcements about planned construction in the territories forced the Palestinian side to withdraw from an agreement for fear that it would be accused of treason.
Throughout the negotiations, Netanyahu and Abbas sought to satisfy the American mediator. This fact is enough, senior state official believe, to convince Kerry and his friends in the State Department not to quit and throw in the towel on the continuation of the talks.
So what are we in for? Well, many people are suggesting that the US invite the Israelis and the Palestinians to Washington as soon as possible and present them with the document setting the basic principles of the permanent agreement: Borders will be based on the 1967 lines with land swaps, east Jerusalem will be the capital of the Palestinian state, and Israel will maintain its presence in the Jordan Valley.
The Israeli side expects the Obama administration to take this initiative and demand that the sides commit to it – and stop their evasion tricks in order to avoid making tough decisions.
The most important decision in light of the failure of the negotiations has to do with the issue of meeting the timetable: In the future, the sides will have to avoid setting target dates. Because at the end of the day, an agreement will only be reached with deep American involvement, under one condition: That the US will start acting like a world power again and prove to officials in Jerusalem and Ramallah that it is irreplaceable.
