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Photo: AP
Iranian supreme leader Khamenei. Ominous messages sent towards the reformists.
Photo: AP
Alex Fishman

Living in a dream world: Obama's Hollywood vision of the Mideast

Analysis: The Americans may think the lifting of sanctions will lead to a utopian vision, but what's in store for Israel right now is increased vigilance. The danger has, at best, been postponed.

The Iranian military-nuclear technological clock has been set back. How much time have we earned? No one can say for sure. But that is the only silver lining in the agreement between Iran and several world powers.

 

 

As far as Israel is concerned, the removal of sanctions from Iran is a ringing diplomatic failure. Israel could not convince the world, mostly the West, that Iran's potential threat to Israel and the stability of the Middle East consists of more than just its military nuclear program. Israel's demand that the crisis be used in order to restrain Iran's destructive policies in the Middle East fell on deaf ears.

 

The removal of sanctions gives the government in Tehran the power to feed the flames between Shi'ites and Sunnis, between Israelis and Palestinians, and to keep subverting the regimes in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Jordan, as well as strengthening the Assad regime in Syria. The Western powers haven't merely given Iran legitimacy, but have provided it with material means that will aid it in realizing its destructive vision.


Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. A victory for diplomats, a loss for the free world. (Photo: EPA)
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. A victory for diplomats, a loss for the free world. (Photo: EPA)

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif declared that diplomacy has won. Perhaps the diplomats won – but the free world lost, big time.

 

As far as Israel's national security perceptions go, Iran remains the number one threat – not ISIS or al-Qaeda. Parts of Israel's security forces are dedicated to the Iranian threat: From preparations to the next war with Hezbollah to covert operations in the Middle East, attempting to move the threat farther away from the Israeli border. This includes continued investments in deterrent weapons like submarines, which the Iranian regime considers a sword hanging over its head.

 

Huge amounts of money will soon start flowing Iran's way: Its military industry invests $2-3 billion every year in dozens of factories. When the sanctions are lifted, that industry will multiply itself twice, maybe three times over, as part of a plan to reinvigorate the Iranian military. But the products of this industry will reach all parts of the Middle East: From the Houthis in Yemen, through Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Hamas in Gaza.

 

The Americans have chosen to ignore the Iranian missile industry, which covers most of the Middle East and reaches Israel. This necessitates Israel's continued preparation, both offensively and defensively.

 

US President Barack Obama. An incorrect vision of an Iranian utopia. (Photo: AP)
US President Barack Obama. An incorrect vision of an Iranian utopia. (Photo: AP)

 

Israel will have to vigilantly watch the Iranian military's gathering of force. The Russians have already signed lucrative deals to renew Iran's air force, and the main question is their ability to fund the process. Once the sanctions are removed, the money will arrive. Even though Iran's economic infrastructure is rotten from the inside, when $100 billion in new money flows in, building up military power is the first item on the agenda.

 

The world will take its attention off Iran with time, but Israel doesn't have that privilege: While they go back to sleep, Israel will have to increase its investments in intelligence.

 

The American government is in love with this deal: It can already envision the Russians selling weapons for oil, imagine the Europeans rebuilding the Iranian car industry, and are hoping that the American aeronautics industry floods Iran.

 

And that's only the beginning. The US sees Iran flourishing under the reformists, and giving up its imperialist ambitions, nuclear program, and support of terrorism. It sees Iran focusing on improving its citizens' quality of life instead. In other words, it sees McDonald's beating Sharia.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Just waitin for sanctions to be lifted in order to start trading with Iran. (Photo: AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Just waitin for sanctions to be lifted in order to start trading with Iran. (Photo: AP)

 

The Americans are sure that they'll reap the rewards soon, and that next month's parliamentary elections will see the people voting for moderate candidates. In addition, they hope that the masses celebrating the lifting of sanctions will affect the Iranian Assembly of Experts to elect a "liberal" heir to supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

 

But Khamenei hasn't said his last word regarding his replacement. The spiritual leadership has recently been sending ominous messages towards the reformists. And the Revolutionary Guards, which don't like the Western winds that are blowing through Tehran, haven't said their last word, either. But the Americans think they're in a Hollywood movie: They see a new Middle East of peace and fraternity. That's Obama's legacy, and after receiving a Nobel Prize for nothing, the Oscar is on its way too.

 

 

 


פרסום ראשון: 01.17.16, 23:43
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