Israel believes Iran could have a nuclear bomb in two years
Military Intelligence Directorate's assessment says Islamic republic is expected to entrench far from the Israeli border following IAF strikes on its assets in Syria; Hamas likely to initiate a limited offensive against Israel in the coming year.
The Islamic Republic could develop a nuclear bomb in two years' time if it resumes its nuclear arms race, according to Military Intelligence Directorate's assessment.
The United States' withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord in 2018 and the resumption of sanctions have crippled Teheran's economy, which might lead it to bolster its efforts to achieve nuclear weapon.
Furthermore, instead of attempting to entrench itself along the Israel-Syria border, Iran is now investing efforts in basing itself in the eastern and northern part of the war-battered country, far from the Syria-Israel border, the IDF said.
After sustaining multiple Israeli airstrike that caused extensive damage to its facilities and military forces in Syria, the Islamic republic decided to change its policy. Instead of establishing relatively large airfields and military compounds near the Syria-Israel border, Qassem Suleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force and thIranian Revolutionary Guards' strongman, is expected to deploy his forces in eastern Syria and Iraq.
Iran strives to get a foothold in Iraq, deploying rocket launchers on its soil to target Israel. In addition, Shiite militias are expected to base themselves in western Iraq while awaiting the order to cross the border to Syria and join forces targeting Israel.
In addition, Iran has gradually withdrawn its troops from the Damascus international airport, which just until recently, served the Iranians as a weapon distribution center under the guise of civilian airport, which was targeted by Israel several times. According to the IDF assessment, Teheran will attempt to deploy its forces in the T-4 airfield in the Tadmor region in northern Syria.
As far as Gaza is concerned, the IDF said Hamas might initiate another round of fighting, dragging Israel into a situation the terror organization will be in the position to demand the government for additional economic and humanitarian reliefs.
According to assessments, the terror organization's offensive will be limited, but powerful enough to shake the Israeli leadership. The army ruled out any kidnap attempts of IDF soldiers, however, stated Hamas might use a terror tunnel that only reaches the security fence without crossing into Israel in an attempt to bring Hamas militants close to the Israel-Gaza border.
The army added that the unrest in the enclave might spill over into the West Bank, where up until now a relative calm has prevailed due to the economic incentives Jerusalem has given the Palestinian Authority, which rules there.
Moreover, the Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad has been rearing its head, carrying out shooting attacks against IDF forces across the border against Hamas' orders.
The political echelon's policy—according to which the army operates—is to prioritize Israel's northern front over the southern front due to Iran's ongoing activity in Syria, while aiding the Hezbollah terror organization achieve high-precision rockets.
Nevertheless, IDF chief Aviv Kochavi has instructed to bolster preparedness on the Gaza frontier to handle possible escalation there in the upcoming months.