Bibi is a magician after all
Analysis: Netanyahu succeeded in reviving Begin's Likud, making voters who didn't want to hear about him cast a ballot in his favor; now he has to make good on his pledge to be a PM for all.
Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister. His intention, at least at this stage, is to try and build a narrow government, based on the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties.
He doesn’t have a majority in the meantime, but he does have a momentum. The only person standing between him and such a government is Kulanu Chairman Moshe Kahlon. Kahlon has no reason to rush into anything. On Tuesday evening, he was planning to spend the night in consultations, and he may very well continue the consultations over the next few mornings.
Kahlon will be subject to heavy pressure. The pressure will come first of all from his voters, who mostly come from the right. It will also come from his friends in the Likud.
Kahlon knows that he will find it very difficult to succeed as a finance minister in a narrow government: The haredim will come to the government hungrier than ever; he will be harassed by a strong social opposition on the outside, and by Bayit Yehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett on the inside; and the most important thing perhaps is that the tensions in Israel's foreign relations will cast a shadow on the economy.
This is not the government Kahlon hoped for. This might not be the prime minister he hoped for either. But the situation that has been created greatly reduces his ability to maneuver. He can allegedly join forces with Zionist Union Chairman Isaac Herzog and the left-wing parties, but the numbers don't support this option.
Kahlon will likely focus on his list of demands from Netanyahu, from housing to the banks. In practice, he can demand that all the economic and social decisions will be subject to his authority. Every promise he gets will be fixed in the basic guidelines and signed in legal documents. He knows that whatever he gets now he won't get a minute after the government is sworn in and the ministers sit on their buckskin chairs.
He believed Netanyahu's verbal promise once. It is unlikely to happen to him again. The establishment of a government is not a matter of a day or two. In addition to Kahlon, the other partners have their own demands – and neither Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman nor the haredim will be shy.
A narrow government has significant advantages: It is more efficient, more effective and doesn’t suffer as much from internal constraints. It also has its shortcomings: The haredi component of such a government keeps a major part of the public opinion away. That's why the haredim prefer to join national unity governments.
Moreover, the capitals of the countries whose friendship Israel depends on are suspicious of such a government. Prime ministers from the right, including Netanyahu, needed a flak jacket from the center-left in the past – Shimon Peres, for example, or Tzipi Livni. The flak jacket protected them twice: Once on the outside, vis-à-vis foreign governments, and once on the inside, as a good excuse in light of the settler lobby's pressures.
Netanyahu is now talking like someone who has waived the left's flak jacket. He is convinced that he will be able to manage on his own. It's a fact that within several days, in a frantic campaign, he succeeded in reviving Menachem Begin's Likud and making voters who didn't want to hear about him and about the Likud a week ago head to the polling station and cast his party's ballot. He is the comeback kid.
His achievement this time is much bigger than his achievements two years ago and six years ago, when he barely succeeded in building a government, and paid a heavy price. And this achievement is his, and only his. He didn't steal the elections, he won them.
Will a right-wing government succeed in curbing the Iranian nuclear program and preventing Israel's isolation in the West? I seriously doubt it, but the wisdom of the masses says it will, and for now at least, vox populi vox dei (the voice of the people is the voice of God).
President Reuven Rivlin will likely suggest when he meets with the factions' representatives that they should try to join forces and create a wide government. At the moment, that seems unrealistic, both from Netanyahu's point of view and the Zionist Union's point of view. If the negotiations encounter difficulties, the idea may pop up again, in one format or another. Time will tell.
The election results do include some good news that should be told. It's good that a list containing the Kahanists failed to pass the election threshold. It's good that the parties that were once big have resumed their growth. It's good that the voter turnout increased. It's good that so many young people became active on the eve of the elections. Even those who were disappointed by the outcome of Tuesday night should not despair. Despair is not an option.
A former Likudnik who voted for Kahlon reminded me on Tuesday evening of a comment by English football legend Gary Lineker, which pretty much sums up the election results: "Football is played for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win."
Netanyahu will remain in the leaking, des res on Balfour Street in Jerusalem for another term. It's a sweet victory. He should be reminded, however, of the lesson that winners have personally experienced throughout the generations: The hubris, the winner's arrogance, is waiting around the corner, followed by the punishment. In the past two years he has accumulated too many hard feelings, too many personal scores. This baggage burdens him more than anyone else.
"I am everyone's prime minister," he said Sunday at Rabin Square. Well, let him be.
