Iraq and President Obama

Analysis: Obama hopes to boost his, America’s status through upcoming Iraq pullout

Ron Ben-Yishai|Published: 08.09.10 , 18:01

Part 2 of analysis

President Barack Obama’s recent announcement regarding the upcoming Iraq withdrawal was meant to secure several objectives. One of them is to boost his status and the Democratic Party’s status within the American public ahead of the upcoming Congress elections.

Part 1

Iraq and the Israeli angle

Ron Ben Yishai

Analysis: In long run, Iraq withdrawal could help Iranians reinforce anti-Israel deployment

Iraq and the Israeli angle

Another aim is to prompt a sense of urgency in Baghdad, in light of the political dead-end faced by the Iraqi regime. Ever since the general elections held in Iraq in march of this year, the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish parties and political blocs had been unable to reach agreement on forming a government, and this may lead to a flare-up and possibly to a civil war too.

Meanwhile, Iran is interfering behind the scenes, in the aims of bringing its Shiite loyalists to power in Baghdad. At the same time, Syria along with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are attempting to facilitate a mixed government that would grant respectable representation to Sunnis and secular Iraqis as well. The US supports this effort, yet it has been unable to force its will upon Iraq’s political elements.

Nobody wants to see a civil war in Iraq; not even the Iranians. The only ones who would gain from it would be al-Qaeda members in Iraq, who will go back to fishing in the murky waters of Iraq’s ethnic conflicts.

A message to Afghanis

A third reason for Obama’s declaration is his desire to convey a message to Afghanistan residents and to Afghani President Hamid Karzai. Through his announcement, Obama wishes to make it clear that US forces have no intention of staying in Afghanistan as an occupation force, so there is no reason to help the Taliban fight an army that in any case intends to withdraw from the country in about a year or so.

By doing this, Obama apparently hopes to somewhat mitigate the hate and animosity held by Afghani civilians towards US and NATO forces. Meanwhile, President Karzai is getting a clear signal that he should quickly build up his security forces; otherwise, in a year or so he and his loyalists will be left without any effective defense force that would be able to safeguard them and their corrupt government.

Should Iraqi politicians manage to form a stable government, maintain security in their country, and push back Iran’s attempts to turn Iraq into a satellite state, this may boost America’s regional status and boost Obama’s image as well.

Yet should the Iraqis fail, the Iraq withdrawal would weaken America’s status in the Middle East, and indirectly weaken Israel’s regional status as well – in respect to the efforts to thwart Iran’s nuclear program, but also in respect to the US effort to elicit substantive results from Israeli-Palestinian talks.