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Ron Ben-Yishai

Iraq and the Israeli angle

Analysis: In long run, Iraq withdrawal could help Iranians reinforce anti-Israel deployment

Part 1 of analysis

 

US President Barack Obama’s recent announcement about withdrawing troops from Iraq by the end of the month is not as dramatic as it is being portrayed, as this is an expected move declared by the US president immediately after he was elected. The latest statement boosts Obama’s credibility as a president who delivers on his political pledges and therefore is worthy of trust.

 

From an Israeli point of view, the American move makes almost no difference in the short term. However, in the long run, it may lead to a worrying strategic development.

 

Should Iran manage to bring its loyalists to power in Baghdad as result of the Iraq withdrawal, it would allow Tehran transport military and air forces closer to the border with Israel, via a geographic contiguity of loyal states – Iraq and Syria. This may also help Iran transfer supplies to Hezbollah.

 

Yet the link to Israel doesn’t end there. The planning of the US withdrawal operation got underway more than a year ago in fact, in the Pentagon and in the American headquarters in Iraq. In the framework of these preparations, the 29 main US bases in Iraq had been evacuated, while another 23 relatively small bases scattered across the country remained. Most of the forces had been evacuated from these bases and some were transferred to Afghanistan.

 

In fact, the US military, acting on President Obama’s orders, adopted the same “trick” used by the IDF Northern Command in 2000, when then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak decided to pull IDF troops out of the south Lebanon security zone. As we recall, the outposts were emptied out and only small forces were left behind to blow them up and quickly withdraw a few hours later. The operation was presided over by then-Northern Command Chief, Gabi Ashkenazi.

 

US adopting ‘Israeli model’

We can assume that the issue of Iraq withdrawal and the lessons drawn by Ashkenazi in the wake of the Lebanon evacuation were an important topic of conversation in recent meetings with his counterpart, Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

In any case, the Americans adopted and are still adopting the same method. They emptied out – and are still clearing – the bases which were used exclusively by US troops, while leaving behind small forces to defend them against looting and attacks.

 

On August 31st, some tens of thousands of additional soldiers will be leaving Iraq, most of them administration and logistics soldiers, thereby officially completing the evacuation. However, another roughly 50,000 US troops will remain in Iraq and be defined as “instructors and mentors” for the Iraqi army, police, and intelligence branches.

 

In addition, these American troops will serve as a sort of military safety net and help Iraqi security forces with heavy artillery, command and control, and the deployment of unmanned aircraft and other intelligence means.

 

Part 2 of analysis to be published Monday afternoon

 


פרסום ראשון: 08.09.10, 12:11
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