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Site of suicide attack in Tel Aviv
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Photo: Yotam Froum
Assessing the new situation. Mofaz
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Analysis/ Is the cease-fire over?

Security officials surprised by Tel Aviv suicide bombing; it is estimated IDF response will be mild to maintain relative calm

“Delicate and fragile” - Those were the words Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and IDF chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon used in order to describe the Israeli-Palestinian “Hudna” (cease-fire) in recent weeks.

 

Friday night the calm was shattered when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the entrance to a club on the Tel Aviv beachfront.

 

Although security officials were never euphoric regarding the cease-fire, even they were surprised by the attack.

 

While Mofaz decided to convene a special situation-assessment meeting Saturday to discuss the matter, security officials say if Israel would respond at all to the attack, it would be a specifically-targeted response; a response that would not obstruct the progression of the peace process.

 

The Hudna, which began in January and peaked during the Sharm el-sheikh summit, was regarded by Israel as a strategic opportunity.

 

In one of his recent lectures, Yaalon alluded to the fact that a revolution takes time.

 

“From the anarchy that was prevalent in the Palestinian Authority to a state of one law – this is an extreme change,” he said.

 

The terror attack in Tel Aviv is indeed a blatant breach of the cease-fire, but it is not the only one in recent weeks.

 

In February, two heavy barrages of mortar shells were fired at Israeli settlements in Gaza, a Palestinian attempted to stab a soldier in Hebron, and security forces thwarted several would-be suicide terror attacks.

 

So, if it weren’t for the security forces’ upper hand, the Hudna would have been broken a while ago.

 

Security officials were not surprised to find Hizbullah’s fingerprints all over Friday’s attack, and now they will have to assess whether the suicide bomber was able to reach Tel Aviv from the West Bank due to the leniency Israel has shown as part of the goodwill gestures it has made to the Palestinians.

 

Fewer suicide bombings

 

On the one hand, Israel wants to give Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas a chance, and government officials are expressing cautious optimism regarding his ability to restore the relative calm.

 

To this end, Israel must refrain from issuing an intense military response that would escalate the violence.

 

However, it will be difficult to ignore such a severe incident, so it is estimated Israel’s reaction, which may not be immediate, will be to attack a specific target.

 

Mofaz and senior security officials have expressed content with the relatively quiet situation, as the past two years have seen 16 suicide bombing attacks, as opposed to 25 in 2003 alone.

 


פרסום ראשון: 02.26.05, 14:12
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