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Who's afraid of Hizbullah?
Paradoxically, an Israeli military response to Hizbullah’s threats could save the group
Israeli officials have gone to great lengths of late to portray Hizbullah,
and its leader Shiekh Hassan Nasrallah,
as a party that could reignite Israel’s northern border - as if the organization is at its peak.
| Northern Provocation |
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| Hizbullah flies drone over Israel / By Ali Waked and Roee Nahmias |
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Hizbullah drone enters Israeli air space, second time since November; Mofaz: Hizbullah trying to ignite West Bank |
| Full Story |
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Against this background, the sending of the drone this week over northern Israel is seen as an escalation, and the security establishment is on edge because of it.
But reality is exactly the opposite: Hizbullah has been in decline for several years, since the “enemy” Israel left the country, and especially since Syria started to leave Lebanon.
Hizbullah knows that without Syrian patronage, it cannot continue to be the only armed militia in Lebanon.
Opposition rallies in Lebanon against Syria were also directed, in part, against the legitimacy of Hizbullah as a Shiite minority presence.
For this reason Hizbullah quickly organized a huge rally of its own in response to the demonstrations, not only in support of Syria, but also in support of itself.
Preparing for 'day after'
Things have reached the point in Lebanon that Hizbullah is preparing it’s strategy for the day after Syria is gone. For this reason, Hizbullah spokesmen such as Deputy leader Naim Qassem have said the
organization would disarm if Israel withdraws from the Mount Dov region.
The organization is trying to ensure political and public relations points in the event of an eventual breakup - in actuality, the group will be disarmed whatever Israel does, because that is what U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 demands.
Furthermore, Hizbullah already admits it is considering changing its self-definition to a reserve army, with an emphasis on civil-political elements.
This, too, points to weakness, not strength.
Lesson to Israel
Nasrallah certainly has an interest in “heating up” the northern border, but Lebanon’s population, even the Shiites, won’t stand for it. They are just looking for a return to normal life.
For this reason, Hizbullah is irritating Israel, but careful not to cross any red lines.
The lesson to Israel is clear: don’t fall into the trap. Any military response will play right into Nasrallah’s hands.
At the end of the day, it could be the paradox of the Middle East: Hizbullah’s primary enemy could save the organization from decline - a decline already written in red letters on the walls of the Middle East.
| First Published: | 04.14.05, 16:19 |
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