Is the Golan next?

It was former Prime Minister Ehud Barak who overused the cherry blossom fable, regarding the cherry tree that sustains invisible frostbites until, one morning, it blossoms, splendid and impressive. (This fable, by the way, is understood only by those who travel abroad often. After all, where in Israel can you find cherry trees? Perhaps, not too many, on the Golan Heights.) The fable’s moral is clear: processes invisible to the human eye suddenly come to fruition. Moreover, the wise statesman or senior military commander must be able to spot the telltale signs after the very first frostbite hits the tree. I would start sweating Last week, in my view, we witnessed such event. Indeed, the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon after 29 years of occupation could have significant consequences for the Israeli presence on the Golan. If I were a Golan resident, the first bead of sweat would begin forming on my forehead. The proverbial truck that transported the last Syrian soldiers out of Lebanon may, in a complex and deliberate process, reach Golan communities as well. Syrian President Bashar Assad recently grasped who the globe’s sole “master” is these days, and he also realized the “master has gone crazy” and has no qualms about using force. The United States always needs an enemy, and even before it is done in Iraq it could, from Assad’s point of view, use force against Syria, too. ‘Cash your check’ What does Assad have to do to avert this disaster? Restrain the Hizbullah, close terror group offices in Damascus, and give more democracy to Syria’s miserable residents. In order to spare himself and his country, Assad may indeed follow the American instructions. The Hizbullah, he may say, is an internal Lebanese matter, but he could turn it into a fully political party. Meanwhile, he can shut down terrorist headquarters in the blink of an eye. If he wishes, Assad can also quickly put up some sort of a democratic display. And then, after all this is done, Bashar Assad would tell “Mr. World” George W. Bush: I did my part and met your demands fully. Now, gentlemen, it’s your turn in Washington to cash your own check - peace with Israel in exchange for the Golan Heights. The Americans, as we know, where never too excited about the Golan’s annexation following the Six-Day War, and for 38 years now have been consistent about the need to return the Golan to the Syrians in exchange for a full-fledged peace. Wise observers should prepare in advance During the days of Rabin, Netanyahu, and Barak the Americans were much more active on the Syrian front than in the Palestinian arena. However, George. W. Bush is looking for a moment of satisfaction and Golan Heights residents may be the ones to pay the price. The process may still be hidden, just like the cherry tree’s frostbites. It may also be more complex than described above and would likely take more time, but wise observers who can see into the future, the way any prime minister should, must prepare for that possibility, regardless of personal political views. Finally, a personal note: The above-mentioned should not be understood to mean that I hope the proposed turn of events materializes. This is what indeed will happen, even if not in the coming weeks. And I’ll end with a clich&eacute from the late Moshe Dayan, speaking after security establishment discussions: “If I was wrong, come to me a day after the mistake and I’ll also explain to you where I was wrong.”

Is the Golan next?

After dealing with Syria, Bush may turn his attention to Golan Heights