'Quiet withdrawal expected'
Palestinian terrorists will likely hold their fire during upcoming disengagement, senior IDF intelligence official tells Ynet. Hamas has no choice but to commit itself to quiet withdrawal, he says
"If Hamas activists fire a Qassam rocket despite this, for example, the Palestinian Authority would respond aggressively," the officer said, and added the PA aims to ensure a dignified withdrawal in a bid to paint it as another step towards a Palestinian state.
"They are already removing terror group flags in the Strip and hanging 'official' PA flags in their place," he said.
"The most influential factor in the Palestinian arena is the public's expectations," the official said. "The PA wants a quiet withdrawal to prove it's the master, the Hamas has no choice but to support this, because that's what the public wants. The same is true for the Islamic Jihad, which does not wish to remain outside the Palestinian consensus."
He said, “There are groups, such as those who were behind Sunday’s shooting attack in north Jerusalem, which are not committed to a peaceful pullout, so it cannot be guaranteed, but all the major players understand this is what the public wants at this point.”
“No group will want to be depicted as being responsible for delaying the pullout. The PA understands the advantages of a calm pullout, and the key to this is its agreement s with Hamas. Recently Hamas leader Haled Mashal has also spoken along these same lines."
Violent confrontation with Hamas may be inevitable
Despite the optimistic assessments, the PA is gearing up for possible disturbances and attempts to thwart the pullout.
“PA Interior Minister Nasser Yusuf has set up a special security force to deal with pullout-related events, but this force is only 2,000 men strong, while it should include 5,000 men, so most of the burden will fall on other PA organizations,” the IDF official said.
“In any case, if someone will shoot, the PA will respond harshly.”
But things become more complicated when it comes to predictions regarding the post-pullout era.
“Hamas believes that following pullout the Palestinian public will be disappointed in such a way that will renew the support for the organization and the resumption of the armed resistance,” the official said.
“Meanwhile, PA Chairman Abbas believes the incorporation of Hamas into the political system, along with the January elections, will be a restraining factor.”
Nasrallah feeling the heat
Regarding the possibility Hamas would not become more moderate following the disengagement, the Intelligence officer said Abbas understands that a violent confrontation with the terror group may be inevitable.
“Although Hamas has come out on top in its recent clashes with PA forces, as far as public awareness is concerned, the PA has triumphed, because Hamas was depicted as being responsible for thwarting the agreed-upon lull,” he said.
“This success assisted Abbas in making the Qassam rocket fire attacks against Israel illegitimate in the eyes of the Palestinian public.”
The officer said he is hopeful the Iranian nuclear threat would be contained for the time being.
“Iran is not a suicidal country, and it is definitely possible the international pressure applied on it will bear fruit,” he said.
“I believe the Iranians will make due with convincing the European factors it is deliberating with to acknowledge the country’s right to maintain a nuclear fuel reserve.”
The official said that according to security assessments, Iran would be able to produce nuclear weapons for military use as of 2008, at the earliest.
“There is no doubt Iran wants nuclear weapons, and I hope the international community would take our estimations into consideration,” he said.
On Tuesday the El Watan newspaper reported that the second phase of the prisoners exchange deal between Israel and Hizbullah has failed due to Hizbullah’s inability to offer information regarding the fate of missing IAF navigator Ron Arad.
“Israel holds the body of a Hizbullah member who infiltrated Israel last month in a bid to kidnap IDF troops,” the official said.
“Recently Hizbullah Head Hassan Nasrallah publicly said all options, including kidnapping, are open. In my opinion, such a statement is indicative of the great distress Hizbullah is in. Hizbullah is becoming more moderate and even entered the Lebanese government; it cannot resort to terror, and this increases the pressure on Nasrallah."
