Hamas terror has declined sharply
Photo: AP
Blast during Hamas rally drew harsh criticism
Photo: AP
Palestinian infighting in Gaza increasingly common
Photo: Reuters
Will political power change Hamas?
Photo: Reuters
Hamas in a bind
Terror group's growing political power may be blessing in disguise
These are not easy days for Hamas. The bad stretch began on the evening of September 23, when a rally held by the terror group degenerated into mayhem and death after a vehicle carrying explosives blew up,
killing some 20 Palestinians.
Yet despite Hamas' usual flare for big words, its actions on the ground have been surprisingly inconsequential. Despite pledges, courtesy of spokesman Moshir al-Masri, to make the "Zionist enemy pay for its continued aggression," the terror group instead halted its rocket strikes, at least for the time being.
Yigal Walt is News Editor of Ynetnews.comHamas has been playing with fire, literally, for a while now, and was finally burned by its failure to heed calls to put an end to its pompous military parades.
The group was promptly rebuked by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, while its awkward attempt to shift the blame onto Israel - through a massive rocket barrage aimed at southern Israeli communities - proved a miserable failure in the face of a harsh Israeli response and growing internal pressures, forcing Hamas to declare a unilateral end to Qassam strikes.
The incident and ensuing developments apparently raised Abbas' ire, prompting him to trade his trademark penchant for inaction with at least a semblance of a serious counter-terror effort. Following fierce clashes on Gaza's streets, Hamas charged PA officials - working in the service of Israel no less - were trying to destroy the group even at the risk of a civil war.
Palestinian Elections
Sever Plocker
If Hamas lays down its guns, Israel should allow the group to stand for elections, Sever Plocker writes
Painful lessons
Indeed, it appears Hamas is increasingly faced with a reality it finds wholly unpleasing, that is, an inability to translate its growing political power into military achievements against Israel. In fact, the opposite may be true - Hamas' growing internal influence makes it increasingly vulnerable to internal pressures and forces it to attach greater weight to the wishes of "the street", even when those clash with the group's morbidly militant ideology.
This is not the first time Hamas is learning, the painful way, the limits of power. The educational process can be traced back to the IDF's operation "Defensive Shield" in April 2002, following a horrific March that saw some 140 Israeli killed in a string of terror attacks.
Following the devastating Passover eve bombing at the Park Hotel, which claimed the lives of 30 Israelis, the army proceeded to reoccupy Palestinian towns, killing and detaining scores of wanted terrorists in the process and inflicting severe damage on terrorist infrastructure across the West Bank.
The harsh blow taught Hamas what should be a mandatory part of any "Terrorism 101" lesson plan - terrorists must tread a highly delicate balance as not to provoke the enemy to such an extent that would foster the conditions - and legitimacy - for deploying the State's vastly superior military resources to offer a counterstrike.
No less troubling for the Palestinians, the repeated strikes at the heart of Israel prompted Sharon's government to move ahead with the construction of the West Bank security fence, a barrier that has served to greatly hamper Hamas' ability to perpetrate future attacks while making the lives of some Palestinians even more miserable than before.
Residents confront Hamas terror cells
Further demonstration of the limitations constraining Hamas came in July 2005, just ahead of Israel's pullout from Gaza. Following a string of rocket attacks, Israel renewed its assassination policy on Friday, July 15, killing six Hamas members in two separate Air Force strikes in Gaza and the West Bank. One of those killed was Adel Haniya, the nephew of senior Hamas figure Ismail Haniya.
One would expect harsh Hamas retaliation, and indeed, Palestinian terrorists promptly initiated a rocket and mortar barrage at Israeli communities. The Qassam strikes continued for several days before almost magically tapering off.
What happened? For one thing, the IDF continued its pressure, at one point threatening to launch a large-scale Gaza operation. Meanwhile, Abbas publicly lashed out at Hamas, charging the terror group was threatening to scuttle the Israeli withdrawal and vowing to end the anarchy on Gaza's streets, a statement followed by several days of fierce clashes in the Strip.
No less important, Palestinian public opinion clearly aligned itself against the continued rocket strikes for fear they would indeed sabotage the disengagement. On Saturday, July 16, residents in the town of Khan Younis clashed with Hamas members as they tried to fire mortar shells at Israeli communities. By Tuesday, July 19, increasing reports emerged of Palestinian residents in the northern Gaza Strip confronting Hamas terrorists in a bid to prevent them from launching rocket and mortar strikes.
In view of the increasing pressure, Hamas quietly caved in, halting its attacks before it could exact any meaningful revenge for the killing of its members only days earlier.
'No alternative to contacts with Israel'
Hamas' dilemma will likely become even more acute following the upcoming Palestinian general elections, where the terror group is set to make strong gains. Hamas has for long made its reputation as the "honest alternative" to corrupt Palestinian Authority officials, serving as de facto opposition to the ruling Fatah movement - and not hesitating to slam the PA on every possible occasion.
Yet as the group will soon discover, political success comes with a heavy price tag, namely, growing responsibility over the fate of local residents - minus the ability to chastise others when things go wrong.
This realization has apparently already started to sink in, as attested to by a recent Jerusalem Post report, which revealed that despite publicly rejecting any contacts with Israel, elected Hamas-linked municipal officials have nonetheless been cooperating with Israeli administrators.
Hamas West Bank leader Hassan Yousef was quoted as saying "There is no alternative to contact with the Israelis when we are speaking of ongoing civilian affairs for the sake of the welfare of the inhabitants," a comment that speaks volumes about the sort of bind Hamas will increasingly find itself facing.
And what does Israel have to say about all this? Politicians tend to dismiss any possibility of engaging Hamas - for obvious political reasons - yet in surprising remarks that mostly went unnoticed, former Shin Bet Deputy Director Ofer Dekel expressed his confidence that sooner or later Israel and Hamas will engage in negotiations.
"As long as they continue to conduct terror acts, we should strike at them," Dekel said in a special Yedioth Ahronoth interview in June. "But in the future we will hold talks with Hamas. They will also want to talk to us. I am not certain it will happen within the next year or two – but it will come."
