Terroruerilla en route to failure

Hizbullah's activity isn't pure guerilla, as it acts against citizens, nor is it pure terror as it is composed of a non-regular army. Hizbullah invented, then, a new term: Terroruerilla. This is new kind of Shiite, fanatical, terror-guerilla supported by states, using unconventional military means.

Until a few days ago, Nasrallah was enjoying the admiration of Terroruerilla, yet today it resembles the glorification of the legendary arch-criminal, Al Capone.

He too enjoyed the support of the Chicago streets until the number of his innocent victims grew and his stature declined. Same goes for Lebanon. The extent of the destruction, combined with the elimination of Hizbullah outposts and the international community's support of Israel, result in a critical mass pressuring Nasrallah and his organization. The media's focus on the bombings in Israel misses the 7 elements of the slippery slope the Hizbullah is on:

If you're not on – you don't exist. It seems that Nasrallah's absence from TV screens is a hard pill for him to swallow, but is twice as hard for his troops. From a popular interviewee, he has turned into the "wanted" Nasrallah fighting for airtime. When he is on once a week, he must make up for lost time and his performance becomes forced and non-credible.

You may lie – but can't get caught. This is basic rule of psychological warfare. The leader's credibility, once praised even by Israeli media, has lost ground. For example, it has taken Hizbullah a long time to confirm that Maroun al-Ras was taken over by the IDF.

The Lebanese internalize – the critics lash out. As in the domino effect, the Lebanese – including Shiites – begin to understand the extent of the military tsunami they are facing.

Hizbullah shocked by number of casualties. Hizbullah is purposely not reporting data of its casualties fearing demoralization of its forces. Yet information issued by the IDF and gathered from local media and Lebanese websites indicates that about 120 Hizbullah fighters were killed; that is around 15 percent of its active force. Such losses would most likely cause the organization to recruit its "reserves" (Hizbullah numbers about 800 active fighters and between 3000-5000 "reservists").

Frustration about low number of casualties in Israel. It seems the Hizbullah leadership is disappointed by the low numbers of Israeli victims. Nasrallah's point of reference was the suicide bombings of 2002 and the physical and moral damaged they caused at the time. Today it is known that part of the "spider web" thesis of Nasrallah was based on causing maximum losses in a short period of time, before the Israeli authorities will be able to organize to protect the citizens. As a result, he predicted that the Israeli public would put massive pressure on the government to negotiate and reach an agreement with the Hizbullah, thus promoting his political power in Lebanon.

Nasrallah's nightmare – South Lebanese exiling to the north. Among Hizbullah's scenarios, the exile of a quarter of a million south Lebanese is viewed as a nightmare. The move, known in combat doctrine as Counter Insurgency has, doubles in effect under these circumstances: First, it means driving a wedge between Hizbullah and many Shiites in South Lebanon who became refugees. Second, massive pressure is placed on the Lebanese government and the residents of Beirut. Third, the move will allow the IDF to act in south's villages empty from civilians.

The Tyre front – "Axis of Evil." The city of Tyre and the surrounding towns have many rocket launchers and ammunition depots but the level of soldiering of the Hizbullah in those areas is lower than that of operatives based in Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbeil. As far as Hizbullah is concerned, the Tyre front is considered secondary and is based on elements that change hands every few years. Some of the Tyre area warriors fought alongside Israel in Southern Lebanon Army (SLA) Shiite units, others are the sons of PLO members. Those who launch rockets from this front are mercenaries rewarded with a smuggling "franchise". It is logical to assume that once the IDF enters Tyre, they will put their weapons down and flee to the mountains.

COL (res) Moshe Elad was of the Tyre and Bnit Jbeil district in the Lebanon Liaison Division. Today, he is a researcher at the Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology at the Technion in Haifa.