Heading for 3rd Intifada?

The moment of truth is nearing. We must choose between the implication of preparing the ground for the establishment of a Palestinian national unity government - and the result of thwarting it.

For the first time in 13 years, Israel sees no way of ending its control over the Palestinians. The path of negotiations is blocked because "we have no partner." Unilateral moves have also been removed from the agenda following the Qassam fire and Hizbullah's attack from Lebanon. Hence, Israel's diplomatic agenda vis-à-vis the Palestinians is at a dead-end.

At the same time, since Hamas won the Legislative Council elections in January, Israel has formed an international coalition that demands Hamas recognize Israel, ratify existing agreements, and curb terror. As Hamas is standing its ground, Israel is acting in an effort to bring about the paralysis of the PA through various administrative and military means.

Against the backdrop of the ideological, constitutional, and political struggle between Fatah and Hamas, this policy is indeed leading to a growing collapse in the PA's ability to govern.

This outcome contradicts the Israeli interest. A Palestinian Authority that is allowed to provide for the population's basic needs and possibly even put an end to the firing on Israeli territory is a fundamental Israeli need.

This statement is true whether Israel resumes negotiations or goes for a unilateral move, as will likely happen if we're to face another period of political freeze, during which Israel needs quiet and stability on the Palestinian front.

Europe may come up with new plan

Moreover, the combination of the lack of a diplomatic agenda and a policy that leads to a PA paralysis cannot be maintained. Sooner of later, the PA will completely collapse or be dismantled by its elected officials. Alternately, European countries may propose a diplomatic plan aimed at filling the void created by Israel and the United States and salvaging the PA.

In the worst case scenario, a third Intifada will break out and will swallow up Israel's military, civilian, and economic resources into a bottomless pit.

The pill Israel must swallow is bitter indeed: It must waive legitimate, justified demands. The most Israel can expect is a ceasefire, a hudna, coupled with implied recognition of Israel and previous agreements by the Hamas government. At this time there's no other way.

The only political arrangement that may salvage the Palestinian Authority is a Palestinian national unity government that is about to be formed on the basis of the "Prisoners' Document."

This is a government whose platform contradicts the "Road Map" peace initiative and also the basic agreements of the Oslo process. However, this is the only government who has any chance to again stabilize the situation in the West Bank and Gaza, even if temporarily.

This is a moment of truth for Israel: On the one hand, our demands are justified. On the other hand is their price and historic implications. The essence of national security, as is the case in politics, is the choice between imperfect alternatives. The time to choose has come.

Gidi Grinstein is the founder and president of the Reut Institute