Dr. Eitan Azani, a staff member at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, said that "the decreased capabilities of Hizbullah following the Lebanon war may lead the movement to increase its efforts to carry out direct and indirect attacks in various arenas."
Azani, along with fellow instititue member Col (res) Yoni Fighel, wrote a paper on the latest Lebanon war's implications on regional terror that will be presented in the ICT's sixth annual conference on counterterrorism in Herzliya on Monday.
According to Azani, the organization will most likely "increase operations to encourage and initiate terror attacks in the Palestinian territories and inside Israel, assisted by Palestinian terror organizations or Arab Israelis. Additionally, it may open a new front against Israeli or American targets abroad…and incorporate itself in terror activities in the Golan Heights."
Azani is convinced that the war caused a new strategic situation in Lebanon and the Middle East that will affect, at least for the short term, the character of the Iran-Hizbullah connection or, as he calls it, the Iranian-Shiite axis.
He believes that Iran will continue to support Hizbullah both covertly and overtly - through the transfer of funds, transfer of weapons, training camps for operatives, etc. – despite the fact that such behavior could harm Lebanese relations with the international community.
Nonetheless, Azani believes that the rebuilding of Hizbullah's military capabilities will take a while, due to the recently slowed rate of arms transfers from Iran to Hizbullah across the Syrian border. For this trend to continue, he emphasized, "it is important for Lebanon, once the naval blockade is lifted, to continue hindering arms smuggling by sea."
Azani is certain that arms smuggling is not the only problem for Hizbullah and its Iranian patron. "The war placed Hizbullah disarmament on the Lebanese agenda, which placed extra pressure on the Iranian-Shiite axis," he said, noting the isolation from other Arab countries during the war.
For his part, Fighel focuses on the Palestinian implications of the war, mentioning a survey in the al-Ayam Palestinian newspaper from July 27th, which stated that 66.3 percent of Palestinians prefer that Hizbullah lead negotiations regarding all three Israeli captives.
"The Palestinians see Hizbullah as the first guerilla organization to hold a strategic weapon against a state. Regarding air strikes – the Palestinian populace views this as Israel 'going crazy' and reacting in a surprising way."
"According to the Palestinians, similar behavior could be utilized against the PA and this contributes to a deterrent impression of Israel in their eyes. Palestinians prefer ground clashes, where they believe they can achieve significant accomplishments that were not seen in Lebanon," he added.
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