The victory that never was

A new and foreboding Arab myth is forming in front of our very eyes.

A survey revealed that some 63 percent of all Palestinians "support adopting the Hizbullah model" in its struggle against Israel. Similar feelings were expressed recently in Amman when Jordanian King Abdullah announced that since the second Lebanon war the "Arab street" feels Israel is no longer "invincible" militarily.

And in Damascus, Syrian President Bashar Assad made some threatening pronouncements to the effect that his people would not wait much longer to return to the Golan Heights, "because their patience is running thin."

Things are clear: The sense that the second war in Lebanon proved Israel could be beaten is becoming widespread throughout the Arab world.

Unfounded myths shouldn't be taken lightly

Such expressions are indicative of a new and dangerous myth that is being created in font of our very eyes. Namely, the ability to beat Israel militarily. This development shouldn’t be taken lightly. Even unfounded myths such as these often lead to war.

After World War I, the myth of "a knife in the back" paved the way to World War II. And in our region, the Sinai Campaign in 1956 bred a dangerous myth that in due course led to another war.

Research on that war revealed that that Egyptian commanders in Sinai reported that they had destroyed the Israeli armored corps, that the Israeli army was about to collapse, and that it was only saved thanks to British and French intervention.

The Egyptians were convinced their army had halted the progress of the British and French troops in the Suez Canal until the ceasefire was enforced on the two sides by the US and the USSR. In short, Egypt was convinced that only outside intervention had prevented the Egyptian army from marching on Tel Aviv.

Reality, however, was somewhat different: Reports on the destruction of the IDF's armored corps were fabricated by the Egyptian commanders who wanted to save their own skins. The British and French troops were about to subdue the Egyptian army in the vicinity of the Canal, but were halted by the political echelons that couldn't withstand the diplomatic pressure.

However, in Arab awareness, both on the street and among decision-makers, the Sinai Campaign is seared as a campaign that resiliently withstood harsh conditions and a demonstration of Egyptian military competence. The next time, the Arab myth argued, we'll subdue Israel by military force.

Ten years later, this myth became the cornerstone of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser's military-political strategy, which drew the entire Arab world behind him. From the minute the IDF withdrew from Sinai and was replaced with UN forces, the clock began ticking ahead of the next war.

The increasing threats towards Israel, the deterioration towards the Six Day War, as well as Syria and Jordan's joining the campaign – were all bred by the myth of success in 1956.

Lebanon and Gaza 'retreat under fire'

Now Israel is facing a similar threat. The Arab world is arguing that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, as well as the disengagement from Gaza, were retreats under fire. As testified by the King of Jordan and the Syrian president, the outcome of the war in Lebanon strengthens this argument.

In order to prepare adequately for the new situation, we have to recognize that the danger of a wide-scale war breaking out has increased considerably.